Anglo-American long-term cycle, part 2 Turnings

As I previously told you, each complete cycle has had four different seasons. The first cycle started in 1435 from the third turning, an Unraveling. Since then, the Anglo-American world has completed six full cycles. Today, the Anglo American world is in the fourth cycle, a Crisis. This is the turning in which the biggest changes happen. A society fights for its survival. It is almost impossible to forecast which will be the end result. The length of a Turning is normally 15-30 years. Only once, the length of the season has been something else. This happened in the Civil War in the US. That season lasted only five years. These Turnings have changed in the same order through all the history:

• The first Turning is called a High.
• The second Turning is called an Awakening
• The third Turning is called an Unraveling
• The fourth Turning is called a Crisis

Each Turning has its own characteristic social mood. After the Turning has changed, people think about themselves, institutions and society differently. These Turnings can change gradually or suddenly. The reason for each change is that different generational archetypes move to the next stages of their lives. Each of these archetypes are equally important. They will be introduced in the next week. Each Turning is also important in its own way. Each Turning moves the society towards another rebirth, which comes after the Crisis has been resolved.

The first Turning, a High

A High can the best Turning for a society. It begins after the society has resolved the most important basic issues of the prior Crisis. Last High started soon after the World War II ended. This Turning is mostly a great time for people who accept the majoritarian culture and society´s major role in their lives. The destruction of society is finally left behind, even though people don´t really know it. People are happy for what they have achieved during the Crisis. Wars are unlikely. Institutions are reinforced and individualism is low. People are unified and moving the society into the same direction. Families are strong, divorce rates are low and the birth rate is high. Inner life of people is weak and spiritual life minuscule. Vision of the future is brightening.

The second Turning, an Awakening

An Awakening begins after some events have triggered a cultural revolution. For example, last Awakening started after the Kennedy assassination in 1963. After the Awakening has arrived, people start worrying about their inner life, instead of worrying about the society or its institutions. People become cynical, public order starts deteriorating and there are wide protests for a better society. Crime and substance abuse rise. Awakenings are remembered for their images of extreme social behaviors like mass demonstrations, even riots. Children become underprotected and they have liberal upbringing. Creativity peaks and it is directed towards spiritual values. In the end, people have a consensus opinion that they have better inner life than the collective social order. In the end of this era, vision of the future becomes euphoric.

The third Turning, an Unraveling

An Unraveling begins after the society and its people perceive that the new cultural mindset is in place. This era has a psychology of abundance and maximum individualism. People do not trust the government or institutions, but they do trust themselves. People also express themselves through commercialism. They show themselves through brands and prosperity. Economic booms and busts are probable. Spiritualism is declining. Individual moral is low. In the beginning, people are happy, and they trust their future will be great. Eventually, they experience the change in their mood. They become nervous about the future. They start thinking about more corrupt society and see it splitting into smaller pieces. The vision of future darkens in an Unraveling.

The fourth Turning, a Crisis

A Crisis begins after some events have triggered an upheaval in public life. This is the most important Turning during a long-term cycle. This Turning defines the direction for the society for the next long-term cycle. It is the era of destroying the old and rebirth. Its conclusion can be a glorious victory or a complete disaster. Most people that remember the last Crisis have no effect on society as a whole. The memories of the old horrors are gone. Most people will find a common enemy and rediscover teamwork and social discipline. People also start complying to the authorities, crime descends, substance abuse and birthrate decline and people accept the sacrifice they need to do to defeat the enemy. They are ready to do whatever is needed. Wars are likely, as is protectionism. There are less immigrants because foreigners are the ones who get most of the blame about the deterioration of social order. Vision of the future is urgent. There is a great need for fast action.

This was the overview of each of the four Turnings. They vary in length, but have the same order. These Turnings never move backwards. After a High never comes a Crisis, or an Unraveling never comes after a Crisis. Without a great chaos, these patterns do not change in the Anglo-American world. This cycle can come to an end or it can accelerate or stop. It is hard to imagine how this could happen, but nuclear war or biological weapons could cause an end to this cycle. Or a regime change like China taking controlling the whole Anglo-American world could be the end of this cycle. It is very unprobable that this would happen, but it is possible.