Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Anglo-American long term cycle, part 4 Crisis era

If and when Howe and Strauss were right, things could escalate to the full-blown Crisis. Current cycle is in a Crisis era. You can see many commonalities between the era we live now and the era in the end of 1930s. It is possible that all the things happening now are just random noise and I, Howe and Strauss are wrong. Investor Ray Dalio also sees things as we do. World is about to go into the climax of a Crisis era.

The anatomy of a Crisis era

Crisis era lasts normally something between 15 and 25 years. Once has it been very short. This happened during the Civil War in the US. Era starts with a catalyst or catalysts. It can be a burst of an economic bubble, like in the 1929, a Civil War, a declaratio of independence, or some surprise in general election. These catalysts change the mental state of the majority in a country. It can happen suddenly or slowly. Normally change starts from one to five year after the catalyst. Society starts determining itself differently along the period of time. People are more interested in developing institutions than themselves. They start repelling individuals who are more interested about themselves than the community they live in. Some people may start destroying the assets of the rich people. In this era, the differences in the incomes between the rich and poor are the largest. Culture and technology are used for strengthening the behavior for the common good.

Protecting society from the new threats takes over. Problems are exaggerated. When these problems are trying to be solved, the problems get bigger. These solutions are simple and demanding. Instead of solving the reasons for the problems, people focus on the symptoms. Leaders use institutions to solve problems in the society. Leaders are bad during the Crisis. People still believe them and their solutions. The role of a family grows in society. Social interaction grows too. Cooperation is based on survival, not fairness. Some people and generations need to sacrifice their benefits for the common good. This can lead to a division of labor among the gender and age. Children are overprotected compared to adults and women are overprotected compared to men. The promises made about the well-fare of people before the Crisis won´t be kept. It becomes impossible.

During the climax of the Crisis, the role of the people is the strongest. The rage in the individuals has transformed into rage of the community. Protectionism and xenophobia are strongest. The probability of wars is highest. If they are fought, there could be a bitter end with extensive destruction. The probabilities for Civil Wars and revolutions are highest during the climax. Politicians have bigger moral rationales for destroying the enemy than normally. They have no room for compromises in their minds. Common people want an utter destruction of the enemy. Climax of the Crisis is society´s counterpart for nature´s earthquakes and floods. The destruction creates the change in society. It can be good or bad. You cannot know it beforehand. Climax normally happens from one to five years before the end of a Crisis era.

Commonalities between today and 1930s

The catalyst of the former Crisis era concluded in 1929, when the stock market crashed. You can also see that financial crash 2007-2009 concluded this Crisis. Finally central banks had to print money because they had no other way of solving the financial crisis. In the 1930s, there was a Great Depression. This financial crisis was a Great Recession. People didn´t suffer financially as badly as in the 1930s. The recover was faster this time. This recovery haven´t really solved the financial problems of the great majority of people. The former recovery didn´t either. When this happens, the great majority feels that capitalism and democracy do not function well enough for them. Populism increased like it did in the former crisis. Catastrophe is bound to happen, when these problems are not solved. During the 1930s, the dominant world power Great Britain confronted the rising power Germany. Today, there is about to be a big conflict between the dominant world power US and China. A hybrid was is on. It is hard to forecast whether it becomes a full blown conflict that is fought until destruction.

Archetypes during a Crisis era

In a Crisis era, Prophets can be seen more as spiritual elder leaders than active seniors. They highlight their physical weaknesses. They are more interested in religious beliefs and are willing to praise the lord for younger generations. Women are more interested in religion than men. Political leaders are often Prophets during the Crisis. These gray champions demand moral values from the younger people. They also need to understand that their economic wellbeing is diminished during Crisis. Their financial benefits are reduced for the sake of younger generations. Boomers have lived without great financial problems until now. They have to get used to have less money for consumption. Some of them will work after retirement, especially during a climax of the Crisis.

Nomads are in midlife during a Crisis. This archetype has the biggest financial suffering. They have the biggest role in solving problems in society. They have to think about conflicts between there own benefits and the socially acceptable solutions. Their number one goal is survival of the society. They have also the greatest responsibility in getting people to work on common good, instead of their own benefits. Nomads are flexible employees. They are willing to change jobs and their behavior if they are necessary for their survival. A typical success story is an entrepreneur who is known for his technological ingenuity, being flexible, and his cunning plans. Typical failure is a person who takes big risks and do not accept their losses on time.

Heroes represent cooperation during a Crisis. They guide technological development for more communal purposes. Facebook is one good example. Mark Zuckerberg belongs to Hero generation. Heroes work in bigger groups of people than other generations during Crisis. Older generations see them as a generation who works towards its own good, but it is not true. During a climax this is a big thing. Without this cooperation, there would have been a catastrophic solution for each Crisis era. Heroes solve problems through cooperation much better than older generations´ expectations. The behavior and clothing of young adults will become more harmonized. Individuality suffers. They are ready for sacrifices because of the common good. They will use violence if necessary and they are willing to fight for the bitter end. As an employees, Heroes strengthen the role of labor unions during a Crisis. They will also take care of decreasing the differences in income between the poor and the rich.

Artists have only small roles during a Crisis. They are either in the late elderhood or childhood. They are dependent on others. Artists are overprotected as children. They also suffer from losses of parents more than any other archetype. They help adults by doing small chores like cleaning or vacuuming. In the late elderhood, Artists can only follow how the Crisis advances from the side and hope for wellbeing for their last years of life.

I could also speculate about the future, but I will not do that, because I cannot forecast anything.

This is all for the long term Anglo-American cycle.

-TT

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