If and when Howe
and Strauss were right, things could escalate to the full-blown
Crisis. Current cycle is in a Crisis era. You can see many
commonalities between the era we live now and the era in the end of
1930s. It is possible that all the things happening now are just
random noise and I, Howe and Strauss are wrong. Investor Ray Dalio
also sees things as we do. World is about to go into the climax of a
Crisis era.
The anatomy of a Crisis era
Crisis era lasts
normally something between 15 and 25 years. Once has it been very
short. This happened during the Civil War in the US. Era starts with
a catalyst or catalysts. It can be a burst of an economic bubble,
like in the 1929, a Civil War, a declaratio of independence, or some
surprise in general election. These catalysts change the mental state
of the majority in a country. It can happen suddenly or slowly.
Normally change starts from one to five year after the catalyst.
Society starts determining itself differently along the period of
time. People are more interested in developing institutions than
themselves. They start repelling individuals who are more interested
about themselves than the community they live in. Some people may
start destroying the assets of the rich people. In this era, the
differences in the incomes between the rich and poor are the largest.
Culture and technology are used for strengthening the behavior for
the common good.
Protecting society
from the new threats takes over. Problems are exaggerated. When these
problems are trying to be solved, the problems get bigger. These
solutions are simple and demanding. Instead of solving the reasons
for the problems, people focus on the symptoms. Leaders use
institutions to solve problems in the society. Leaders are bad during
the Crisis. People still believe them and their solutions. The role
of a family grows in society. Social interaction grows too.
Cooperation is based on survival, not fairness. Some people and
generations need to sacrifice their benefits for the common good.
This can lead to a division of labor among the gender and age.
Children are overprotected compared to adults and women are
overprotected compared to men. The promises made about the well-fare
of people before the Crisis won´t be kept. It becomes impossible.
During the climax
of the Crisis, the role of the people is the strongest. The rage in
the individuals has transformed into rage of the community.
Protectionism and xenophobia are strongest. The probability of wars
is highest. If they are fought, there could be a bitter end with
extensive destruction. The probabilities for Civil Wars and
revolutions are highest during the climax. Politicians have bigger
moral rationales for destroying the enemy than normally. They have no
room for compromises in their minds. Common people want an utter
destruction of the enemy. Climax of the Crisis is society´s
counterpart for nature´s earthquakes and floods. The destruction
creates the change in society. It can be good or bad. You cannot know
it beforehand. Climax normally happens from one to five years before
the end of a Crisis era.
Commonalities
between today and 1930s
The catalyst of
the former Crisis era concluded in 1929, when the stock market
crashed. You can also see that financial crash 2007-2009 concluded
this Crisis. Finally central banks had to print money because they
had no other way of solving the financial crisis. In the 1930s, there
was a Great Depression. This financial crisis was a Great Recession.
People didn´t suffer financially as badly as in the 1930s. The
recover was faster this time. This recovery haven´t really solved
the financial problems of the great majority of people. The former
recovery didn´t either. When this happens, the great majority feels
that capitalism and democracy do not function well enough for them.
Populism increased like it did in the former crisis. Catastrophe is
bound to happen, when these problems are not solved. During the
1930s, the dominant world power Great Britain confronted the rising
power Germany. Today, there is about to be a big conflict between the
dominant world power US and China. A hybrid was is on. It is hard to
forecast whether it becomes a full blown conflict that is fought
until destruction.
Archetypes
during a Crisis era
In a Crisis era,
Prophets can be seen more as spiritual elder leaders than active
seniors. They highlight their physical weaknesses. They are more
interested in religious beliefs and are willing to praise the lord
for younger generations. Women are more interested in religion than
men. Political leaders are often Prophets during the Crisis. These
gray champions demand moral values from the younger people. They also
need to understand that their economic wellbeing is diminished during
Crisis. Their financial benefits are reduced for the sake of younger
generations. Boomers have lived without great financial problems
until now. They have to get used to have less money for consumption.
Some of them will work after retirement, especially during a climax
of the Crisis.
Nomads are in
midlife during a Crisis. This archetype has the biggest financial
suffering. They have the biggest role in solving problems in society.
They have to think about conflicts between there own benefits and the
socially acceptable solutions. Their number one goal is survival of
the society. They have also the greatest responsibility in getting
people to work on common good, instead of their own benefits. Nomads
are flexible employees. They are willing to change jobs and their
behavior if they are necessary for their survival. A typical success
story is an entrepreneur who is known for his technological
ingenuity, being flexible, and his cunning plans. Typical failure is
a person who takes big risks and do not accept their losses on time.
Heroes represent
cooperation during a Crisis. They guide technological development for
more communal purposes. Facebook is one good example. Mark Zuckerberg
belongs to Hero generation. Heroes work in bigger groups of people
than other generations during Crisis. Older generations see them as a
generation who works towards its own good, but it is not true. During
a climax this is a big thing. Without this cooperation, there would
have been a catastrophic solution for each Crisis era. Heroes solve
problems through cooperation much better than older generations´
expectations. The behavior and clothing of young adults will become
more harmonized. Individuality suffers. They are ready for sacrifices
because of the common good. They will use violence if necessary and
they are willing to fight for the bitter end. As an employees, Heroes
strengthen the role of labor unions during a Crisis. They will also
take care of decreasing the differences in income between the poor
and the rich.
Artists have only
small roles during a Crisis. They are either in the late elderhood or
childhood. They are dependent on others. Artists are overprotected as
children. They also suffer from losses of parents more than any other
archetype. They help adults by doing small chores like cleaning or
vacuuming. In the late elderhood, Artists can only follow how the
Crisis advances from the side and hope for wellbeing for their last
years of life.
I could also
speculate about the future, but I will not do that, because I cannot
forecast anything.
This is all for
the long term Anglo-American cycle.
-TT
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