Backcasting and Premortem

A normal way of making decisions about the future is to imagine where you want to be and how will you get there by thinking about the goal and the objectives you need to achieve. You start doing it from the beginning. This is not the way to maximize the probability of getting there. What you should do instead, is to invert. Backcasting and premortem are better ways of doing things. They start from the future and move backward until you get to the beginning.

Backcasting

Backcasting means a process in which you move back from the positive outcome. You have an availability bias. One way it represents itself is that you focus more on the here and now and for the immediate future. Longer timeframes are more problematic for keeping the focus on the most important things. When you focus on the present, you consider only things that are in your mind right now. You can probably design a few next steps. This is not enough for successful planning. The better way to think is to start from the point in which you have already success. From this point, you start going backward. Ask questions like:

• Why did I get here?
• What events occurred?
• What decisions you had to make to get here?
• How I must have changed to get here?

You can probably understand the probability of accomplishing a goal better. Sometimes you can decide not to pursue the goal by seeing that it is too improbable related to the expected value of the success. You can also identify responses to developments that can cause interference in reaching your goals. For example, what you should do to get back on track when you move away from your goals. These slumps are facts of life. You cannot move straight toward a successful future. Progress has some fast movements and some slow points. Boredom and excitement have variations.

Premortem

Premortem is the exact opposite of backcasting. You start from the negative outcome and move backward toward the present. Premortem helps you to anticipate problems along your way. You can ask yourself the same questions about the future as you did in backcasting, but with a negative twist. For example, instead of asking ”Why did I get here” you can ask ”Why didn´t I get here?” You have better chances for success when you have thought about the negative scenarios. You can also imagine how some obstacles can become too hard to overcome. Dreaming about achieving a goal is not as efficient as doing the premortem. You can have positive goals, but it is better to think about the negative outcomes while having them.

Both have equal importance

Since backcasting and premortem are two sides of the same coin, you have to do both. Positive and negative outcomes have a combined probability of 100%. By doing both, you get a better view of the future. You reduce the probabilities of negative outcomes and increase the probabilities of positive outcomes. Failures and obstacles become less surprising and you have better chances to cope with them. It is easy to lie to yourself by focusing on backcasting and forgetting premortem. You cannot put your head into the sand and forget the negative outcomes. You will make better decisions by doing both.

This is all for now, until next week,

-TT