Wednesday, October 14, 2020

How some models interact and intertwine, in short part 1

This text is a first part of two-part text that shows how models interact and intertwine. It is a short education for the relationships of the models. This text helps you to edit your latticework of mental models when you read the text with deep thought. Be ready to disagree with me and discard any failed assumptions I might have. Enjoy the text

Understanding requires seeing how models interact and intertwine. It is not enough to figure out each model by itself. I show you how few models interact and intertwine in this text. It focuses on a few direct relationships of each model. The number of combinations of models in the book is beyond the understanding of a human mind when you consider indirect effects of the models. I have limited the number of relationships of each model to a few because you learn more with figuring out them by yourself. This chapter focuses on relationships that you cannot find anywhere else in the book. This chapter helps you add some relationships between models and figure out more of them yourself. It is not for rote learning.

Data utilization, theory of constructed emotions, simplicity, and associations interact with all other models. Data utilization is a process to use the understanding of models to react to all stimuli and create the right response. Theory of constructed emotions shows you the process brain uses to create thoughts, sensations, actions, and decisions in form of concepts that are mental models. Simplicity forms guidelines to keep models as understandable as possible and increases odds to use them with the most efficient ways. Brain uses associations to establish links between all mental models. Therefore, all models are associations.

Long-term effects of reactions are often their inverted short-term effects. Inversion relates to probabilities and statistics because it makes them easier to use when certain conditions are in place. It helps you suffer less from excessive self-regard by changing the question ”what are the good points about my beliefs, facts, etc.?” to form ”what are the weaknesses of my beliefs, facts, etc.?” Inversion is a great way to produce a better strategy by starting from the end and moving to the beginning, etc.

Some parts of mental models are irreversible reactions to other models. For example, there are no power law events if the number of particles of a reaction do not reach a critical mass. Different elements of the system react to changes in one element. Chain reactions of interacting models happen. For example, there are no good high-stakes decisions without a great decision-making system in which simplifying leads to fewer options and better quality data that lead to smaller effect of psychological tendencies that can lead to better probability of the best decision.

Combinations of models often work to the same direction. You cannot have deliberate practice without motivation, an effective and fast feedback loop with skilled coach or instructor and willpower to endure with constant failures, etc. Permutations of models have similar characteristics than combinations, but they include path dependence. For example, you cannot have superb skills without the compounding effects of multiple correct repetitions.

Compounding effects do not happen without a feedback loop. Increasing inertia leads to stronger effects of compounding. Having a slight edge creates winner-take-all effects through compounding in the long term. Opportunity costs compound with increased complexity. Evolution also creates variety and extinctions through compounding effects of mutations in genes. Using leverage can increase the compounding effects.

Reaching critical mass requires inertia, compounding effects, feedback loops, and its acceleration fastens with leverage. Critical mass of repetitions is also a necessity to create the novel path of least resistance. You cannot have a latticework of models without enough of them. You cannot have an edge and use it to your advantage without the critical mass of skill.

Inertia that results from the critical mass of people, their psychological tendencies, simplified, sticky messages and the right environment, is a requirement to form enough social proof for social epidemics. Timing is crucial for components that provide inertia for social contagions. If the moment is wrong in the socio-economical long-term cycle, inertia does not have enough power.

The path of least resistance interacts tightly with some models like Inertia, critical mass, tendency to focus on the most available things, social proof, etc. When something has inertia, moving to the same direction and/or preserving the status quo are paths of least resistance. Social contagion grows naturally when it reaches critical mass and creates the path of least resistance. Your tendency to focus on what is the most available to you uses the path of least resistance. The same applies to your other psychological tendencies when the conditions are the most favorable. They often relate these conditions to the bottoms of your daily cycles.

Each decision compounds negatively after sleep against willpower toward the end of day. You need willpower to conscious creation of the path of least resistance. It fluctuates with the daily cycle, sharing its top, and slumps. High-stakes decision-making systems require willpower, and you need it to resist psychological tendencies when they are not beneficial.

Self-reinforcing feedback loops can create leverage, and self-balancing loops deleverage. You can increase the effects of leverage with higher availability. You can also get yourself to act by leveraging the power of your other psychological tendencies. You can create paths of least resistance to use levers, such as support systems. If you want to have an edge, use the leverage produced by compounded repetitions, help from other people, strong motivators, and deliberate practice. You will either have to hire a coach to create a feedback loop with instant inputs to your outputs or find how the greatest performers of all time have done things.

The probability of making the right conclusions, actions, and decisions increases with the proper use of all models in the book. The result you get depends also on randomness. Probabilities increase or decrease when the psychological tendencies affect decisions. You can use statistics to reveal your lack of skill compared to your existing beliefs. Statistics comprises useful tools to predict the evolution of genetic characteristics of the offspring.

Power law events follow the compounding rate changes of social contagions. They create results with extreme statistical distributions and unquantifiable expected payoffs. Self-reinforcing feedback loop can turn slight edges to extreme differences in results. The results apply to many things, including extinction of species.

Understanding antifragility separates skilled from lucky fools in many areas of expertise like investing. Antifragile is a characteristic of a system which gets stronger from the impacts of power law events like evolution by natural selection. Its understanding follows the extreme power law distribution in human population because most people believe that you get resiliency or robustness when you invert fragility. Strong beliefs that result from excessive self-regard are antifragile. They get stronger whenever you get evidence against them.

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