Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Willpower

Definitions

Willpower can be defined as ”A control of one´s impulses, actions and attention” or as ”A control exerted to do something or restrain impulses.”

Kelly McGonical´s book The Willpower Instinct is maybe the best source for willpower. You can find the link below the text.

Four uses of willpower

You use willpower to control your thoughts, emotions, impulses, and attention. You have some predetermined thoughts that conserve willpower, because you are not seeking the best answer and you settle for them. Deliberate thinking uses lots of willpower and you should avoid it when it is not necessary. You control our emotions. This is called affect regulation. It means you are focused on your moods. You are trying to avoid bad unpleasant moods and trying to concentrate on good ones. Impulse control, like resisting temptations, is the most common way of thinking willpower. It is not the only one. You also need to concentrate our attention on good things to achieve high performance. Willpower is needed for getting things done, as much as resisting doing things. I did not understand this for a long time. Maybe some readers think so too.

Modeling willpower as a muscle

The best way to think about willpower is considering it as a muscle. You can practice to gain more willpower. It atrophies, when we do not use it. You can also use it too much and it gets fatigued. You can have many ways of improving willpower. You can improve your physical conditions. You can practice by trying to achieve bigger willpower challenges. For example, you can try to push through a physical barrier after having a long run or you can push through even though you feel fatigued. You can also try cutting back on sweets or making a smaller budget for groceries, which is harder to manage. You should not start exercising by trying to get big results. Willpower should be exercised by taking small steps first. Then getting bigger ones later.

You make decisions all the time. Each decision consumes your willpower. When you use willpower, your self-control system of the brain becomes less active. Your brain uses the energy reserved for willpower first, because it is one of the biggest drains of energy in your brain. Your impulsive shelves have more power after you have used all the willpower. You make more decisions based on your impulses and cannot think straight. All of this happens, because your brain is interested in getting more energy for survival, not to think properly. Like your muscles, willpower get stronger with having right nutrition. It also gets weaker with wrong nutrition. When willpower is down you give into temptations and your muscles do not function accordingly, if their energy level is low. Muscles also atrophy if you don´t use them. Same goes to willpower. You need to give it challenges like you have to move your muscles.

Willpower is psychological and physical

Prefrontal cortex controls willpower. When you lose your control in this part of the brain, you lose your willpower. Every willpower challenge is a conflict for our decision making system. Its impulsive and rational parts are fighting together. you can succeed in our willpower challenges by using your impulsive system into our advantage. You can program our impulsive system to overcome willpower challenges by using your rational system. This will take some time. During willpower challenges, your psychological state matters. Without getting into details, you need to slow down your internal state. One of the ways of acknowledging the amount of willpower you currently have is how strong your emotional states are. When you are having lower willpower, your emotional state is stronger. Higher willpower means less emotional state of mind.

Willpower is also a physical state. You can change your physiology into a state where willpower is the strongest. Willpower is tied into our body´s natural cycles and the fluctuation of its energy supply. Controlling your brain´s glucoce level is the key. Your willpower is low, if your glucose level is not optimal. With low glucose level, your willpower cannot function properly. Then, your brain moves to the path of least resistance and starts giving in to our impulses. You should eat slow burning foods to keep it in the right level. Then you use our willpower when it matters the most.

Willpower´s friends and enemies

Willpower has many friends. I have mentioned that right nutrition is needed to keep your glucose levels stable through the day. In the short term, you can sometimes settle for the less effective solution. If there is a situation, in which you need willpower temporarily, like making a big decision, when you are tired, willpower can be acquired by eating something sweet. Exercise is one of the best ways to increase your willpower. It has a short and long term effects. Strengthening willpower can happen through exercise that lasts only five minutes. Relaxing is also good for willpower. When you are in a state with physical and mental rest, your brain takes a rest from thinking about the future and analyzing the past.

When you see other people following their impulses, you give in to our temptations more easily. It is even worse when you identify oyurself as like them. This works fortunately both ways. It is easier for you to use our willpower, when you think these people accept the behavior. Resisting temptations become easier in the short term. All you need is about fifteen minutes of exercise and your willpower increases in the short term. Exercice also reduces one of the biggest enemies of willpower, stress, in the long term, stress in the long term. Remembering why you are doing something is a friend too. When you come into a situation, in which you need to make choice about giving into an impulse or resisting temptation, remembering why to resist can help you overcome your temptations.

Lack of sleep is one of the enemies of willpower. When you haven´t slept enough, your cells have trouble absorbing glucose from our bloodstream. Your brain and body become desperate for energy. And they start craving glucose and are ready to find it from anything. Sleeping one night well and long can restore your brain to work in an optimal level. During the day, even short naps may be enough. Chronic stress is bad for willpower. When you are stressed all the time, our body diverts energy from long-term needs to attacking short term emergencies. It reduces the energy your brain uses. Then, both of them are ready to fight stress and our willpower becomes low.

You should have willpower in use, when it is most needed. You should plan our days and design our environments in ways you can optimize its use. Especially, when you know you have some important decisions to make, you should avoid all the unnecessary decisions. The other way is to plan naps or exercise before making the important decision.

Sources: 

Willpower:, Roy Baumeister
The Willpower Instinct, Kelly Mcgonical
The Marshmallow Test, Walter Mischel


-TT

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Edge / Comparative Advantage

Definitions

I would define a personal edge as ”A possibility to achieve, produce or offer something with less amount of time and better than others.” Comparative advantage can be defined as ”A country should specialize in the goods or services it can produce at the lowest opportunity cost, and then trade with another country. I will concentrate on the personal edge.

Talent+Motivation+Deliberate Practice = Personal Edge

Personal edge is best achieved in the field of competitive expertise, when all the three components are combined. Depending on the competitive field, it is possible to have an edge with two of the three components in place. If you think about professional athletes in sports like tennis, basketball and golf, they need all of them. There are some exceptions, but they are extremely rare. In the less competitive fields of expertise, you can live without one component. It usually is talent or motivation. 

Your brain has almost hundred billion neurons. Each of them have from one thousand to ten thousand connections with other neurons. The amount of possible brain states exceeds the number of elementary particles in the universe. The idea that talent do not matter is insane. It is not the only thing that matters when you are trying to gain a personal edge. People relying only on their talent, will have a faster development, when they are young. When time goes by, the edge is gone without practicing enough. When people with talent do the same things as people without talent with the same amount of time, the people with talent get better. When you talk about highly competitive fields of expertise, margins with winners and losers can be small. In these situations, talent makes the difference. You should concentrate on the fields of expertise where you are talented. This may be the only way of competing against billions of people.

Motivation is the second component. To be honest, I am having a hard time to answer the question: ”Is motivation to practice hard a talent or a learned skill?” Some people say it is a form of talent, others say you can learn it. I still haven´t made any conclusions about it. I quess it is a combination of both. Being interested in some field of expertise helps you to gain an edge. All people are not interested in the same things. Some people like sports, others music. In a highly competitive field of expertise, you need a desire to practice. Especially, deliberate practice is almost impossible without intrinsic motivation. The question is how to find a field of expertise, in which we have intrinsic motivation? One way of doing it is think about our childhood and what we liked to do then. All of us do not need intinsic motivation. Outer sources work for them better.

Some people can have a bigger need to please others. They can get motivated by an authority figure like a coach or father. Sometimes you get impulses from around you which can increase or decrease your motivation towards something. The right kind of environment and people around you is important in motivating you. It is even better to have these external factors with intrinsic factors to have a motivation to get better at something. Everything is easier with better motivation. 

Deliberate practice is a last component of the edge. It is probably the most important one. It can be also the most complicated one. In many areas of expertise, there are no established practices for getting an edge or being great at it. Developing skills have the same neurological effects in whatever you are practicing. Therefore, practice is the only obligatory components for gaining an edge. And deliberate practice is the best way of developing skills. 

You are in trouble in the information age without an edge

You live in a highly competitive world. Information age gives more equal opportunities for people around the world. Millions of people get better chances to show how good they are in something. Competition gets tougher every year, especially, in intellectual and creative fields of expertise. Record companies had all the power to decide who could succeed before. Now every singer, for example, can download her performances to youtube. It is a platform in which millions of people compete against each other for viewers. The best singers can reach millions of people. This wasn´t possible about twenty years ago. At least, not in this scale. This doesn´t only mean tougher competition. It also means winners take it all effects. A few people get most of the profits and glory around the world.

Having an edge is necessary in a modern world. You should ask yourself ”When competition gets tougher, what can I do to have an edge? You have to remember that edges are always relative. You compare yourself with others. You do not have to compete with millions of people. You have to remember it is easier to be the best in a niche. Being the best singer using, for example, Dutch is lot easier than being the best singer using English. Being the best Dutch Jazz singer is easier than being the best Dutch R&B singer. You can also have a combination of micro skills to have an edge. When you have a combination of skills which is unique, you do not need to be best at anything. You cannot forget a need for demand. If there is not enough people or companies to pay for the edge, it is not useful.

I am not saying we should all leave our current jobs to get an edge in other. But you should definitely try to get one before it is too late. Without an edge you may get into trouble. My advice to all the younger people is to start developing and edge and think about in which field of expertise they have intrinsic motivation and talent. Then find out what are the characteristics of deliberate practice and design your own ways of doing it if necessary.

Sources:

Poor Charlie´s Almanack, Peter Kaufman, Charles T. Munger
Peak, Anders Ericsson
Drive, Daniel H. Pink


-TT

Monday, November 27, 2017

Laptop broken, this blog is on the break

I have broken my laptop. I am currently waiting for a new one.


I am sorry for the inconvenience.


-TT

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Decision making systems

Definitions

You can define decision-making systems as ”A set of principles or procedures for the action or process of making a resolution or conclusion.” You can also define them as ”A set of principles or procedures for the thought process of selecting a logical choice from the available options.”

Human decision making systems

I will only concentrate on the individual´s point of view in human decision making systems in this text. There is no reason why you shouldn´t use any other tools than your brains while making the decisions. For making things easier, you should separate your own decision making systems into two parts: Intuitive and Rational systems. These systems really work together and both of them are always on, but it is easier to think them as separate systems. Intuitive system works faster and rational system slower.

Examples

You see a flying object getting closer to us and you decide to dodge it or you see a beautiful lady watching you and decide to talk to her. Your intuitive systems is working. You are thinking about bying a car and you first look for the information about different cars and then make a decision to buy one of them. Now your rational system is working.

Intuitive system

This system is based on emotion and impulse. It represents your wants, impulses and gut instincts. It is always on, but your rational system sometimes overrides it. Intuitive system makes the decisions when you are tired and unable to think rationally. It works fast and most of the time you don´t even notice it. Fast response was thousands of years ago a requirement for survival. This system also saves lots of energy. Without it, we couldn´t get many things done. Most of the decisions are made by this system. It influences how you see the world around us: recognizing objects, deciding where you keep your attention, helping you avoid losses, and decides how to react in dangerous situations.

It also has some learned associations and biases. It sees some clues from the environment and makes predictable errors because of them. For example, when choosing a restaurant to eat, you tend to follow the crowd without noticing and choose the place to eat with the longest queues. When this system cannot decide, it asks rational system to take control. When the rational system is busy or exhausted, it has more power in our behaviour.

Rational system

Rational system is normally in the background while intuitive system is working. This system thinks it is the decision maker, but most often time, it is just monitoring your actions. You need this system to make decisions in complex situations or making complex calculations like deciding whether you should change a job or not or think about how much you should pay for an apartment. This system is always monitoring you. And it is working only when needed. It normally has the last word, but it gets exhausted. It normally controls your willpower, but when it is exhausted, your intuitive system takes control and you cannot think and make decisions rationally. This normally happens when you have made many decisions during the day or haven´t slept enough. Sleeping enough and keeping your blood glucose level stable helps you to make rational decisions.

Systems working together

These systems work together. Most often, your intuitive system makes the decisions. It also creates impressions and feelings for the rational system. They are the main sources for the explicit beliefs and deliberate choices of the rational system. Only the rational system can change how your intuitive system works. You need to rewire your brain to make changes by programming the automatic and intuitive functions of attention and memory. This cannot be achieved without the rational system. You need to have a lot of conscious effort to change yourself. Changing your habits, improving your skills, and many other things cannot be done without lots of repetition. Your conscious system is in power until you have repeated the action hundreds or thousands of times. You need your rational system to teach your intuitive system work better. You have your paths of least resistance. Which is normally the intuitive system. You get better results and better skills, when your intuitive systems works better. This is the result of your rational system working better.

You need to use both of our systems to achieve a skill level of an expert. Without enough repetitive conscious thoughts or actions you cannot achieve a level where you can use your intuitive system to react whatever the impulses it receives from the environment. For example, a chess master has thought about some positions on the board in advance or played similar games to find a best possible next move. Then he can intuitively make a decision without using any time to think. Thus, it saves a limited time to complete the game. In most of the physical actions, the speed is one thing that separates an expert from a novice. The other is the quality of the actions. You cannot have better quality of actions without having better mental models learned through rational thinking. When you combine the fast speed and the quality high quality of physical actions you get real expertise.

Sources:

Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman
Peak, Anders Ericsson
Predictably Irrational, Dan Ariely


Until next week,

-TT

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

Systems

Definitions

System is defined as: ”A set of things working together as parts of a mechanism or an interconnecting network; a complex whole or ”A set of principles or procedures according to which something is done; an organized scheme or method.

Examples

Universe is a system. Our bodies, habits and skills are systems. Most of the things we do are systems. Some systems are consisted on smaller subsystems like our bodies have skin, organs, etc. Latticework of mental models is an example of a thinking system.

Self-reinforcing and self-stabilizing systems and delays

Universe is always expanding. The interest on interest compounds the debt. In self-reinforcing systems, the previous outputs of the systems change the inputs coming into the systems and amplify the outputs coming out of the system. What happens is that eventually self-reinforcing system gets to the point where the amplifying destroys the whole system. The other possibility is that the limit of growth comes to the point where the growth stops, slows, diverts or reverses. When this happens, the system becomes self-stabilizing.

In self-stabilizing systems the previous outputs of the systems changes the inputs by stopping, slowing, diverting or reversing the growth of the outputs. This self-correction keeps the system working without exploding. Every natural system has an optimal growth rate. We should use them into our advantage. Our skin keeps the temperature of our body from overheating by sweating if we are in an environment in which the temperature is too high or we are exercising. It can be hard to notice these balancing processes, even though they are mostly necessary. We should keep the self-reinforcing and self-stabilizing systems and their interaction in balance. We should always limit the effect of self-stabilizing processes on self-reinforcing processes in balance.

All the systems have delays. People have a natural tendency in concentrating on the consequences we see right after we have done something. The second and third order consequences may come after a long delay. In complex systems, consequences can come after years. We may concentrate on the symptoms, rather than the solutions because of delays. Some system structures have unrecognized delays and they can lead wrong solutions. We should have better awareness about the delays. And we should also remember that causes and effects are not always close in time. When we notice a delay, we should try to shorten it as much as possible.

Small changes in systems can create big results

This happens in individual circumstances as well as in systems. Well-focused small actions aimed for changing the system can create surprisingly big results. Solving a difficult problem can be a matter of finding the system structure in which the small change deliver the big and lasting results. Most of the times, finding these structures is hard. We need to understand the system and how its parts interact with each other. Otherwise we will never find the right structures for these high leverage improvements. We cannot do this without understanding the system as a whole.

Reacting to the change in the system is a lot easier than truly understanding its cause-effect relationships and ways to improve it with small changes. Reacting to the change can be a bad thing. It may cause small changes to the system structure creating bigger problems through self-reinforcing processes. Changing a system structure can have different consequences in the short run and in the long run. Different parts of the systems can also have different consequences caused by the small changes. We also have to think about interactions of the parts before changing anything in one part of the system.

Most of the results in your life depend on the quality of your systems

We are mostly focusing on the different parts of our systems in a particular moment without thinking about the system as a whole or any long-term consequences. Our systems can deliver results that exceed the sums of their parts by a large margin. They can also deliver results that are not even close to the sums of their parts. People using the same systems tend to produce similar results. When we do not change our systems we cannot expect different results. Most of the time, the results we get are not caused by other people, some particular conditions, bad luck or some other explanations. The reason for bad results are the systems or their implementation or our understanding of them. We should think a lot more about the quality of our systems or their subsystems. Then we can get better results. We cannot really improve ourselves without improving our systems.


-TT

Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Compound effect

Definitions

Compounding effects mean little things that repeatedly multiply themselves. They will give big results after lots of repetitions. After a small amount of repetitions, the compounding effect do not have much influence. In the long run, it means everything. When you talk about compounding we talk about exponential growth or decline.

Examples

Universe´s expansion is accelerating all the time due to the compound effect. Repeating an action again and again will create a reverse compound effect by saving energy out brain needs for executing it. If you have a debt, its amount is compounding as fast as its interest on interest. Inflation has a reverse compound effect on the value of cash. After twenty years of 3% inflation, cash has lost about 45 per cent of its value.

Repetition, repetition, repetition

You have a preference to look for immediate and most obvious reactions in whatever you are doing or seeing. This is a problem in achieving something great. You cannot achieve any big wins quickly. You need to make hundreds or thousands of repetitions to achieve greatness. These repetitions creates the compound effect. You quit too early and you miss the compounding effect. This is a sure way to fail. There are no short-cuts even though some companies or people are willing to offer them. In a highly competitive field of expertise, you need to practice thousands of hours. These means that the amount of repetitions is huge.

You have to be patient and need to trust the process. Consistency is the key. For example, in order to lose 10 kilograms, you can make big changes to your diet for a short period of time like couple months and hope you have enough willpower to survive it or you can make a small change of eating hundred calories less every day for two to three years. The second way will probably be more sustainable and its results will be better. The results will take time, but fast fixes normally lead to fast setbacks. Bigger payoffs are achieved by smaller changes, more time and more repetitions. The best way to get the magic of the compound effect is repeating things long enough. Depending on things, the best results are achieved through years or even decades of compound effect.

Compound effect is always working

Compound effects are everywhere. You go through them every day. Most often, their effects are so small that you are not noticing. You need to focus on them and choose which kind of effect on you they have. You should always aim for more positive than negative effects. For example, your diet is responsible for many compound effects. Their effects are not only on our weights. Good diet will let you make better decisions, feeling more refreshed, more focused, etc. Bad diets will lead you to bad decisions, tiredness, or maybe become even depressed.

Your habits are the most important thing about compounding effect. Your good and bad habits and the sum of their effects make all the difference in your life. The older habits you have, the more difficult it is to change them. Repetitions make them stronger and easier all the time. You also need less effort to maintain them after every repetition. A daily routine built on good habits makes a difference in your success. You have good and bad habits and the the sum of their effects is the sum of most of what you are accomplishing.

Your environment and the people you are with are important in getting the right compound effects. You are constantly bombarded with desirable and undesirable impulses through your environment and your friends. You need to think the inputs our brains get every day. You get most of the impulses without noticing. The sum of these impulses compound over time. Therefore, you need to control our environment and avoid all the unnecessary negative impulses like advertising, other people complaining, negative feedback without critical thinking, etc. You also should get as much positive impulses as possible, like constructive criticism, hanging around with more positive people, etc. You are the sum of the people you most often are with. You do not notice these things, because these things happen so slowly. And people also think they are not influenced by these things, because you think you are always rational. You should increase your awareness and start thinking about your environment, your friends, and their effects on us. Then you can increase the positive effects of compounding.

Most of the readers have probably noticed that I haven´t mentioned much about money and compounding. It is true that compounding money is one of the most important things about this mental model. The reason I have left it out of this text, is that it needs more space than I can offer in this text. 


-TT

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Combinations and permutations

Combinations and permutations are very important in calculating probabilities. In this text, they are not covered. The idea is to focus on the combinations and permutations of the mental models. Lets start with definitions.

Definitions

Combinations can be defined in many ways. Here is one: ”A joining or merging of different parts or qualities in which the component elements are individually distinct.”

Permutations can be defined in many ways. Here is one: ”Each of a several ways in which a set of number of things can be ordered or arranged.” In mathematics, the notion of permutation relates to the act of arranging all the members of the set into some sequence or order.

Combinations of the mental models

You need to forget mathematical meanings when you are talking about combinations of the mental models. You could also talk about multiplications when all the mental models are working towards the same direction. For example, when you talk about brands, we talk about many psychological tendencies moving to the same direction. Many tendencies like social proof, availability bias, authority misinfluence tendency, etc. together are creating a connection between the product and customer´s mind. A strong need to buy a particular brand is the product of the biases. The strength of each bias is different in the minds of different customers. In reality, mental models never have effects only on one direction. For example, social proof from a person a customer hates moves his/her decision to a negative direction and from a person he/she likes moves to a positive direction. Sometimes different models will lead people into separate directions.

Permutations and mental models

The biggest difference between combinations and permutations of the mental models is that in permutations the order of the mental models matter. This means less choices. Without a right order, it is not possible to get the wanted results. For example, you cannot introduce new habits without the right order. Habits have three components. First is trigger, which offers you a clue to execute an action. Then, there is the action. The reaction for the action is a reward. Reward is really a source of motivation. When you want to establish a new habit, you need to have all the components in the right order. There is no action without the reward or clue. The most important thing in establishing a new habit is that the source of motivation is very rewarding. The action should be as achievable or easy as possible at first. A trigger should be as available as possible.

Lollapalooza-effect is one kind of combinations of mental models

When the most mental models such as, psychological biases, Inertia, the path of least resistance, and so on, and their strongest effects leads us to the same direction, you can talk about Lollapalooza-effect. This mental model is introduced by Charlie Munger. He only talks about everything moving to the same direction, but it is basically the same thing as having big effects compared to small effects. Munger uses a simplified model. That is maybe a better approach than mine. All the billion dollar brands, the most successful companies and people are the results of the Lollapalooza-effects.


-TT

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Motivation

Definitions

Motivation can be defined as ”A reason or reasons for acting or behaving in a particular way.” Youcan also talk about getting a prize or having an incentive for doing something. Motivation can also be defined as ”being positively engaged to complete a task. Motivation can have two directions. Away from something and towards something. To be more exact, motivation is a combinations of a choice to achieve something, desire to have an effort towards it and drive to persist with that effort.

Examples of sources

The adrenalin burst after having a run, the need for compliments after doing something, bonuses after reaching a predetermined goal at work, the joy of doing something we like etc. Motivation to move away from bad outcomes like spending too much money.

Three primary sources of motivation, intrinsic, extrinsic and altruistic

Intrinsic motivation comes from loving the things you do. You do something because you really want to do something. Extrinsic motivation is a need for doing something, because you get something else, because of that. Altruistic or relational motivation comes from your social needs like connecting with others. People are not equal in responding sources of motivation. Some people are more driven towards intrinsic sources, and some people are more driven towards extrinsic sources of motivation. These sources of motivation may vary. When you are performing an action, you are enjoying more intrinsic motivators. When you are planning for performing the action, you are incluenced more by the extrinsic factors. In the long run, you may think more about common good. Rewards from doing a particular task should always be personalized depending on the primary sources of motivation people have.

Intrinsic motivations come from your egocentric biases, especially if you are an adult. The more effort you have, the more you feel motivated about achieving something. The more effort you put, the more likely you will love the end product. Deep engagement in the action itself can be a source of putting maximum effort with no other rewards. This can be satisfying and most people do something that is enjoyable, satisfying, or personally challenging without getting any rewards. Why does this happen? Because people´s bodies and brains have biochemical reactions like adrenalin or dopamine or some other feel-good hormones bursting in our bodies. They are the sources in this case.

Extrinsic motivations are a double-edged sword. You have an inner need to get some kind of recognition from others. Wrong kinds of extrinsic rewards decrease your motivation to do something. Getting compliments from doing your work is a good way to motivate you, but you need to feel they are genuine. You are willing to work for a smaller salary, if we feel you get some genuine acknowledgement from your work. You may become less driven when you get monetary rewards. Verbal ”well done” is more effective for some people. It will probably lose its effect if it is used too much.

The most powerful source of motivation may be your connectedness to others which can be called altruistic motivation. By getting a higher meaning for your actions, you feel even more motivated than any intrinsic rewards can give you. Favorable perceptions of colleagues are important for all the workers. Doing things for others can make your life meaningful. Altruistic sources of motivation like meaning and connection are harder to understand, because they can influence the world in a longer timescale. For example, motivation to create a better world is not for just you, but for the future generations.

Motivation is a complex matter and not very well researched or understood

People do not understand motivation well. It is a complicated thing with different reactions from combinations of sources. Same action can have many sources of motivation. Different people have different motivations of doing the same things. Some people respond more to extrinsic sources and others more to intrinsic and altruistic sources. Sources may also have a different long-term and short-term effects. Money bonuses may work well as short-term motivators, but in the long run they may cause problems. You cannot get single answer for motivation and how different sources have different effects on different people. Most people and most companies should use a method of trial and error to maximize motivation.  


-TT

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Deliberate practice

You live in a global, interconnected economy. Anyone can sell anything to anyone anywhere in the world. The average performance is not good enough. Unless you have world-class skills in highly competitive fields or some unique and needed expertise, you are in trouble. When you are truly masterclass, the rewards are magnificent. You need to acquire skills through practice and the general principles of the best way to do it are the same in almost every field. This is called the deliberate practice.

Definition of deliberate practice

Deliberate practice is a highly structured act of rehearsing a behavior or engaging in an activity over and over consciously and intentionally, for the specific goal of improving or mastering it. Deliberate practice has four components:

  1. The person practicing has a strong motivation and is focused on getting better in every action.
  2. The task is designed to take person´s existing skills into account and be understood by her.
  3. There should be immediate informative feedback.
  4. There should be a possibility to repeatedly perform the same or similar tasks.

Examples

Figure skater is learning a new jump with the help of her coach. The jump should be a little bit harder than skater has ever succeeded in. Coach should give feedback after every jump about how the skater did and what she can improve when she repeats the jumping action. A professional chess player is studying a certain position that he played wrong in the last game with his coach. The study could be consisted of the games played before by the best chess players in history.

Some of the fields of expertise are better for applying deliberate practice

Many fields of expertise have already developed broadly accepted training principles and these can be called deliberate practice. Most of the professional sports, classical music, and mathematics use the principles of deliberate practice. These fields have some common characteristics. First, there are at least semiobjective ways of measuring performance such as evaluation of expert judges. It is impossible to improve performance, unless you are not aware of what constitutes improvement. Second, fields typically have to be competitive enough to have enough motivation to practice for the goal of improvement. Third, the relevant skills of these fields have been developed for a long time, normally for decades. Fourth, these fields have professional coaches who are improving training methods used by the experts. Otherwise it is not possible to increase the skill level of the top performers in the fields.

The four components

It is hard to have an intense focus and a superb motivation, while you practice things you have not yet managed to do well enough. You need to push outside of our comfort zone and stay focused, when you experience the pain of failure or disappointing result. You can do two things to have a better focus. First, you need general maintenance like enough sleep and good nutrition. The second, is to limit the length of the practice sessions for not more than an hour. Humans have a basic rest-activity cycle which lasts about 80-120 minutes. When you are awake, your brainwaves are faster during the first half of the BRAC cycle and you feel alert and focused. Then your brainwaves slow and we start feeling dreamy and little tired and your focus gets lost. You must also have a motivation to get better. Practicing years and thousands of hours and constantly failing is nearly impossible without high intrinsic motivation.

The practice needs to push the person outside of his/her comfort zone. The path of least resistance is not enough. Specific practicing activities, and exercises should be designed to exceed the person´s current skills, adapt to the person´s ways of doing things and get him/her to the next level. A figure skater needs to learn a jump that is harder than the previously learned jump. She should also understand what is the purpose of everything. What are the reasons to do something in a particular way. And what will the results be by doing things that way. For example, in which part of the feet should touch a certain part of the football while practicing a certain kick. And what kind of spin will the ball have after the kicking action is done right. All the practice should have concrete clear goals. What to do, how to do it and why it should be done that way.

You need feedback to improve. In many cases, it is not possible to know what you have done wrong. It is hard to improve in many activities without somebody watching you while practicing. You should get this feedback immediately. It should be delivered in a way it is understood by the person. Most people need some advice after failure. For example, skater needs to know why her new jump failed. Was it because of not enough speed, or was the position of a skate´s blade wrong. Why did it happen? What should she do differently? Practicing without feedback may lead to the strengthening the wrong chains of nerve fibers. Too many repetitions in a wrong way will lead to wrong ways of doing things and practice won´t be useful. The better you are the more you can understand what you did well and what you did wrong. Watching the performance from the videos may be enough for many experts.

All the practice should be repeatable. It is not possible to strengthen the right nerve fiber chains without repetition. These nerve chains won´t get strong without it. If this is not possible, deliberate practice cannot be done. There are many situations where conditions are not always the same. In these cases, the practice can be done through simulations. For example, practicing about flying an airplane in a storm needs to be practiced in a simulator, or practicing the emergency landing is not possible in natural conditions. Repeating things over and over again will achieve unconscious competence. Things become automatic and repetitions need less thinking. When the critical mass of repetition has been done, the unconscious action becomes the new norm.

Deliberate practice creates better mental models

Every skill has its own mental models. To achieve an expertise through deliberate practice happens by developing latticework of mental models in the field. Experts have more developed and accurate latticework than ordinary people. This is true in physical skills too. Most of the practice is done to form a clear mental model of what the action should feel and look like at every moment in terms of moving your body and it´s position. These models are held in a long-term memory and can be used to have a fast and effective response to certain types of situations. Better models make it possible to process larger amounts of information despite the limitations of short-term memory. Complicated activities require more information than your short-term memory is capable of processing, therefore, you are always building mental models. Everyone has their own models. What really makes the difference between experts and novices is the quality and quantity of the models.

Sources:

Peak, Anders Ericsson
Talent is Overrated, Geoff Colvin
The Talent Code, Daniel Coyle
The Art of Learning, Josh Waitzkin

-TT

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

The path of least resistance

Definitions

The path of least resistance tells you the easiest way to continue a forward motion from a set of alternative paths. A person taking the path of least resistance avoids personal confrontation or pain. You also make the choice that minimizes the energy consumption from many possibilities. You can see this in the second law of thermodynamics which says that heat always moves from hotter to colder bodies unless external work is performed on the system.

Examples

River always runs down hill. It always follows the easiest path. Without conscious effort, you always choose the action which consumes the least energy. You like novelty. This means when you are confronted by many impulses, you choose the new ones which are the easiest paths. When you get lost, you choose the easiest path when you are trying to find out the place you are not familiar with. If you are somewhere uphill, the most probable path for you is downhill, when you don´t know where to go.

Always try to create the path of least resistance for the most desirable things

When I introduced inertia which basically means continue moving into direction where you are already going or stay in the position where you are. I talked about habits. In this case, your habits are the path of least resistance after they have been automated into our brains. You need to make your triggers for good habits as available as possible. The more exciting the prizes of your habits are the less resistance you have. These are the basic principles of creating good habits by using the path of least resistance into your advantage. Changing the existing habits is a lot harder.

You should also create some decision making systems where the path of least resistance is taken into consideration. Most people have a default option of making choices that are based on their opinions and beliefs. You may disagree with some people without making any research, because you just believe something is true. The reason can be that you just believe in something because you wish it is true. For example, you can believe in some promises from politicians and give your votes for them, because they tell us what we want to hear. They use your paths of least resistance. Truth is politicians can never keep all of their promises.

Always try to create the path of most resistance for the least desirable things

While it is important to create the path of least resistance for the most desirable things, you need to use inversion and also make it as hard as possible to choice the path of least resistance for things that are bad for you. This is as important as creating the path of least resistance for the most desirable things. When you are choosing from the alternative paths, you may have to make the worst paths disappear. When you are on a diet, you should keep all the bad food unavailable. Otherwise you may come to a situation where it is too easy to make a choice for eating unhealthy foods. It is probable that this happens when we are in a recovering part of the daily cycle. Feeling tired and emotionally drained will lead you to the path of least resistance, which in this case is unhealthy food. You suffer from availability bias. All the triggers to the wrong paths should be eliminated.

Avoiding all the harder paths will get us nowhere in life

You cannot always choose the path of least resistance if you want to achieve something great. If you want to get better at something, the path of least resistance is not enough to move us further. It will probably lead you to become less skilled. You have to fail, experience some pain and reflect. You need to think what you did wrong. And try to improve yourself. You cannot create new habits or change the existing ones without making conscious choices first. These choices are not your default options and you need to rewire our brains. Rewiring happens through repetition and takes more energy than doing things the way you did before. Things get easier after you have had enough repetitions and ultimately lead you to new or better habit. You have created a new and better path of least resistance. You can create this path of least resistance more easily, when You start creating it during the upper part of the performance cycle. Which means you have less resistance than in the recovering phase of the cycle.

The path of least resistance is not so useful mental model by itself. Understanding inertia, cycles, skills and availability bias helps you to understand it better. As you can see, all these mental models interact. When you understand enough models and how they are related, you create the whole latticework of mental models and using it every day becomes eventually the path of least resistance.

Sources:

Mastery, George Leonard
Peak, Anders Ericsson
The Power of Habit, Charles Duhigg
Be Excellent at Anything, Tony Schwartz


-TT

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Critical Mass

Definition

In nuclear physics, critical mass is the minimum amount of a given fissile material necessary to achieve a self-sustaining fission chain reaction. A subcritical mass is a mass of fissile material that does not have the ability to sustain a fission chain reaction. You can think subcritical mass as a waste, in a sense that you didn´t achieve the reaction you wanted. A supercritical mass is a mass in which there is an increasing rate of fission. In your purposes, you should understand that all the excess material or effort after the critical mass is reached is wasted. Sometimes supercritical mass can cause more troubles than good results.

Critical mass can be described as a point at which something, for example, an idea or a virus, is dominant enough to grow, or sustain, a process, reaction or adopting new technology. Critical mass has many other names like, the tipping point, the minimal effective dose, break-even point, etc.

Hard to know when critical mass is achieved

It is pretty easy to know when you have enough critical mass in physical reactions before they happen. When it comes to real life everything is much harder. Most often, these moments can only be determined afterwards. When the critical mass is reached, the reaction will accelerate quickly. Most often, it is hard to stop the reaction until the acceleration changes into deceleration of the reaction. For example, the flu is unstoppable in every flu season. After the critical mass of people become sick, the flu is unstoppable until it has reached its peak. This point of no return is very hard to define, if not impossible in many cases.

Critical mass (Tipping Point) in social epidemics

Malcolm Gladwell has written a book called Tipping Point, which describes the three rules of social epidemics which are:

  1. The law of the few: All the social epidemics have some people with the special set of social skills involved. These people have vast social networks, are trusted by others, and willing to share their information with them.
  2. The stickiness factor: All the sticky messages have some common characteristics: they are simple, unexpected, concrete, credible, emotional, and are told through stories.
  3. They are spread through the right environments: These environments are usually optimal for spreading epidemics.

When all these three rules are working at the same time, you have better possibilities to spread your ideas for other people. If one of these things are missing, reaching the critical mass of people is improbable. To reach a tipping point, social epidemics are spread through the combinations of many psychological tendencies like social proof and availability bias.

Critical mass of expertise/skill

Critical mass of expertise or skill is reached only after you have had enough deliberate practice. On average, this takes thousands of hours and many years, depending on the amount of competition and talent you have. In highly competitive fields, like popular sports, for example tennis, most people will never reach the critical mass of skill. This point can be enough income from tennis to be a professional. In working life, critical mass of expertise may help you to get into the point where you become irreplaceable. Then you can have a possitility to choose how much you work, when you work and to whom you work for. At this point, we have many choices to choose from and no one else to tell us what to do. Most people never reach this point.

Minimum Effective Dose (MED)

The minimum effective dose is the amount of work, medicine, and resources, that will produce the desired outcome. In medicine, all the extra dose may produce unintended and unwanted consequences for the human body. If you look at the packaging of the medicine, you see many warnings about side-effects like headache from the medicine you use for feeling or getting better. Without reaching the MED, you cannot get better and using medicine becomes a wasted effort. You can also have many things you really don´t want to do, but you have to, like cleaning the house. MED is the amount of cleaning needed to have your house clean enough for you to live in. The amount of cleaning should be the amount that the most vulnerable of the people who live in the house can stay healthy.

Critical mass is one of the most important models in the latticework. But, in order to understand it better, you need to understand more models.

Peak, Anders Ericsson
4 Hour Work Week, Tim Ferriss
Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell


-TT

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Reactions

Definitions

You can find some definitions for a reaction. In chemistry, reaction is defined as ”Reaction is a process that leads to the transformation of one set of chemical substances to another.” When you talk about human reactions you can define it as ”Something done, felt, or thought in response to a situation or event.

Reactions have many orders of effects

Sometimes it is easy to see the effects on a reaction. One reaction may cause a chain of reactions where all of the outcomes are very hard to notice. Any action or behavior has many positive or negative effects or consequences. All the action you take should have more positive effects than negative. This doesn´t happen all the time. When you are making decisions, you should try to understand all the effects they have on your life and to the other people and your environment. Most people focus on the first order of reactions or consequences, but it is too simple. In almost any decisions, there are some consequences of the consequences and you shouldn´t ignore them.

Lets think about practicing a skill. You can assume that positive effect is you get better, when the practice is done well. You can also assume that when you  start from a scratch, you start enjoying the practice more, which is the positive side-effect. The negative side-effect of the first order positive side-effect may be that when you get better, you may need better equipment, which costs money. The Negative effect of practicing a skill may be the need to hire a coach to learn the basics of the particular skill, which costs money. This may have a positive side-effect of learning the skill faster than learning on your own.

Reactions have delays

One reason why people make mistakes in finding causes for some reactions is they see some consequences which are actually consequences of the consequences of things happening way before they can be seen. For example, some doctor prescribes some medicine for the pain in the back of a patient. This will relieve some pain, and a patient may feel fine for a while until the pain comes back even stronger. I am no doctor, but to me this looks like a situation where the real cause could be something like a wrong way of sitting in front of the computer and the effect of the real cause was delayed or formed through time.

The more complicated or bigger the system is the longer the delay can be. For example, most of the countries that have dominated the world with their military or through trading have eventually lost their position. The real causes are hidden beneath the surface of things looking very well, and it may take decades before the position is lost. When youeat the symptoms, things may look good for a while. But the underlying problems are still there and after the delay the symptoms may be lot worse.

A complicated world has many unintended reactions 

When you think about the effects of the effects of reactions, but there will still be some unintended consequences. Youve in a complicated world where it is hard to see how everything relates to each other. Even the smartest people cannot see all cause-effect relationship in their lives. We should keep this in your mind when you are thinking about the consequences of some things you want to do. You should never be so sure about your actions whatever you are doing. For example, developing a habit of working hard for your physical appearance. This can have an unintended consequence of having an unhealthy relationship with food or not spending enough time in recovering phase of your performance cycle, which can cause serious injuries or health problems. The unintended consequences are always there. Most of them do not need serious consideration, but some of them do. For example, in buying some cheap items they do not normally matter, but they probably matter in the expensive ones.

When your latticework of mental models is good, you can find some interactions of the consequences better than without a proper latticework. If you only have some separate mental models, we cannot prepare for the consequences as well as we can with the proper latticework. Improving mental models and understanding their interactions better will give you a competitive advantage

-TT

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Simplicity

Simplicity

“Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it’s worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.”

  • Steve Jobs

Definition

It is basically impossible to find one definition for simplicity. Most of the English dictionaries offer different definitions. You need to define it many ways. First, simplicity can mean something that has no complicated parts or complicated details. Second, the quality or condition of being easy to understand or do. Third, it can be defined: The quality or state of consisting as few parts as possible.

Everything should be as simple as possible, but no more simpler.

People are the most smartest living things in this planet and also the most complex ones. The world is so complicated that even the smartest experts have trouble in understanding their own discipline. Complexity has created enormous amounts of waste to everyday life. To reduce the waste you have to simplify your life. Simplifying should not go too far, because some of the complexity is necessary to be as effective as possible. Increasing complexity has a critical mass, in which the cost of added complexity exceeds the usefulness of extra complexity. Everybody needs to find this point in what they want to achieve.

Oversimplifying is not going to give us the results you want. You cannot be depended on one thing only, not in any part of your life. Keeping things too simple, believing there is only one solution or factor that has an effect on any bigger thing is a major cause for many failures. You can see lots of experts with excellent reputations believing in a single factor in big things like growing multibillion dollar businesses, for example, technological competitive advantage as an only source for growing Apple.

You should simplify with using simple rules and systems. You can add simple rules into your life, like do not eat after 10 pm. There can be rules for anything in life. It is pretty easy to invent the rules, but it is harder to apply them all the time. Therefore, you need systems like habits, skills, or some decision making systems, which make complex things simpler. Systems have normally less waste. You have to remember that systems are created from different parts. The amount of parts should always be minimal for the reason the system which is created and these parts should also be as simple as possible.

Multitasking: doing a shittier job, and being happier about it

People live in societies where the myth of doing many things at once is a sign of success. This is a wrong assumption and has no scientific base. Brains can do only one task at a time. What really happens is that when you are ”multitasking” you are rapidly changing from one task to another. Every time you do it, there is a cost. You get less efficient every time You change your task. What really happens in your brain is that multitasking creates a dopamine addiction feedback loop. This loop rewards your brain for losing focus and keeps it looking for external stimulation. Because of this loop, you get empty rewards from getting hundreds of small tasks done. The opportunity for multitasking is enough to harm your cognitive performance. What really happens is that you get more satisfaction for doing a shittier job.

You have also some metabolical costs from multitasking. Changing tasks makes your brain to burn up oxygenated glucose which is the same fuel for keeping your focus on tasks. Fast and continual changing from one task to another causes the brain burn the glucose so fast that you feel disoriented and exhausted after a short while. You have used all the nutrients in our brain. Your cognitive and physical performances suffer from this. You use a lot less energy, when you are focusing on one task at a time. All the changes in your tasks are also decisions. In multitasking, you don´t even recognize it. Decisions deplete your neural and physical resources too. Little decisions appear to use as much of your neural resources as the big decisions. You should arrange our environments in a way that your possibilities for distractions are as small as possible, especially, when you are doing the most important tasks of the day.

Information overload comes with too many parameters

There is always a maximum amount of information you can process within a period of time. Increasing the amount of information over this limit, you cannot function in the most efficient way. Human brains evolved in an environment, in which the amount of information was minimal compared to the World you live in.The capability of your brains is limited. The maximal amount of parameters, which can be either attributes of choice or the number of alternatives, is ten. After that limit, the quality of the decisions gets weaker. There is not so much difference after ten paramaters have been reached. It doesn´t really matter if there are over ten or even twenty different parameters or alternatives. There are many ways to reduce this number. For example, you can apply systems, in which the amount of alternatives have been reduced before, we even start making a decision.


All this is just a tip of an iceberg about the power of simplicity. It is hard to simplify your life and all the other related actions to an optimal level of simplicity. Everyone would do it, if it were simple, but it is easier to have too much simplicity or complexity. All the masters of their fields of expertise are able to get close to optimal level. Most people cannot do it and they live their lives with lots of waste, whether it means about using their time or efforts. Reaching an optimal level of simplicity should be goal to all of us. It is a skill you should try to learn.

Sources:

Poor Charlies Almanack, Peter D. Kaufmann, Charlie T. Munger
Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz
The Organized Mind, Daniel Levitin
Insanely Simple, Ken Segall

-TT

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Inertia

A definition of inertia: An object either remains at rest or continues to move at a constant velocity, unless acted upon by a force to change the direction or starting a movement.

Objects, persons, and organizations resist changing their direction or resist changing their ways to act. Non-profitable organizations will probably stay below zero unless there will be a change in the company culture or its business and overweight persons will probably eat too much crap and exercise too little in the future unless there will be a force which changes things like a doctor who tells the patient he/she will die soon if there is no change in the exercising and eating habits.

Resistance to change conserves energy

You are naturally resistant to change. It is your brain´s way of conserving energy. It is programmed that way, because when brains were developed, people lived in a hostile neighborhood and survival was the only thing that mattered. It probably still is in your genes, but your survival is not a big deal every day anymore. Conserving energy was one of the best ways of staying alive. Most often, you do the same things again and again, day after day and week after week. All of this is happening in your unconscious mind. What actually happens is that your brain is fighting the change all the time. It does not want to make any changes, because the energy needed stays lower. Change is your brain´s worst enemy. It fights it any way they can. Your brains sabotage your change until you have succeeded to overcome the resistance on the whole. You need to push the change through with a lot of conscious effort or you will fail.

Changing how you work and improving in it need to be fought through your consciousness. Otherwise, chance of changing is low. You hear and think ”this is the way you have always done things” explanation when you or somebody else want to change things to the better. Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is one mental model all of us have that should be changed. All people should remember that the only lasting thing is that things change around you and doing the same things in the same way all the time doesn´t help you in adapting to change. The best time to overcome the resistance to change is when you are on top of our performance cycles. The worst time is, when you are at the bottom. New year´s resolutions have probably the worst possible timing to overcome the resistance to change.

Discipline is nothing, habits are everything

When you are relying on discipline instead of habits, your brain is using more energy. This is a reality you cannot change. Discipline is harder in the long run than having habits. Brains have a certain amount of energy to use for the day. It is basically impossible to stay disciplined through the whole day without having any habits to conserve energy. Discipline can be improved, but there are some natural limits even for the most disciplined people. Energy conservation through habits helps you to focus on the most important things and execute them better.

Habits have the same kind of chains in your nerve fibers than skills. The more you execute the habit the more powerful the chain of nerve fibers becomes. The more repetition you have the harder it comes to change our habits. Each repetition compounds in your brains. Most of your habits are executed through your unconscious. You don´t even realize we do things. Depending on the sources, 40-90 per cent of your actions are habits. This means habits have a bigger role in your life than you think. Getting better habits leadsyous to better success, better ways of life, and a greater well-being.

Habits basically have three components: Trigger, Routine and Prize. You have no habits without the whole chain. Your habits are combinations of these three components. You have just conscious actions. Trigger or a clue is anything from stress to the clues in your environment like logos of a chain restaurant. Routine is the action itself like eating a hamburger. Prize is the real reason why you execute the action. It can be anything from a hormonal change to a strong emotion. If you were watching a brain scanner, you would see a small spikes in our brain waves it while seeing the trigger for the habit and a lot bigger spike during having the prize. After the habit has developed fully, there is no way of getting rid of it. The only thing you can do is to avoid the trigger or change the routine if the trigger cannot be avoided. This will take lots of conscious effort and time. It is not impossible, but the time varies from weeks to months depending on how many repetitions we have done.

The ability to overcome our natural resistance for change and good habits are two building blocks for a great life

Without the ability to overcomey our natural resistance to for change, you do not succeed as well as you could. The only permanent thing in the world is change. You have trouble in adapting this fact. Your world will definitely look different in ten years, but you may have not changed at all. It is not easy, but necessary. All the great performers in their own fields have adapted to change. Good habits conserve energy and lead to better skills and better life, when their effect is bigger on you than your bad habits´. Think about your habits and try to figure out which kind of effect they have on your life.

Sources:

Superhuman by Habit, Tynan
The Power of Habit, Charles Duhigg
The Compound Effect, Darren Hardy
Be Excellent at Anything, Tony Schwartz
Better Than Before, Gretchen Rubin

Have a great week!

-TT