You can understand the Covid-19 pandemic and its impacts better with the latticework of mental models. You can also become better prepared for future pandemics with the latticework. Even though the virus is a biological phenomenon, it spreads through social contagions when the critical mass is achieved. If you understand social contagions better, you can see what needs to be done and how to cope with the pandemic better.
Covid-19 as a social contagion
Covid-19 spreads through the population with close human contacts. Like all social contagions, it has three parts. First, there are a significant few. They are people who spread the disease faster than the rest of the population. Second, social contagion needs to be sticky to spread. Third, it needs the right environment to spread. When all these three parts are in place, the virus soon becomes unstoppable, after the critical mass is achieved, unless you do something. When the critical mass is achieved, the growth accelerates exponentially, until it starts to decelerate. The contagion collapses eventually.
Let us start with the significant few who spread the virus faster than the rest of us. What is common with these people is that they have a better possibility to spread the virus. They meet lots of people and they have close contacts or they have close contacts with these people. They can be real estate agents, work in junk food restaurants or work in call centers, etc. They live in dense urban areas or use public transportation to commute to work. They are also people who have to work for a living, are workaholics, or do not care about minor illnesses like flu. The best way to stop or slow the pandemic is to focus on finding the significant few who spread the virus faster. Then you have to limit their odds of spreading the virus which means that you have to stop them to meet anyone.
In the second part, the stickiness factor is simple. One reason why COVID-19 is so sticky is that many people who spread it do not know they have it. They can spread it without knowing it and it is a problem. This fact is important because they have not tested people who do not have any symptoms. The other reason why it is sticky is explained by the fact that it does not kill people easily or fast. It is not like Sars which killed many more people compared to the number of infections and disappeared fast. The third factor which made it sticky is the length of high odds of spreading. Covid-19 can spread about two weeks from the first symptoms. One problem is that we do not know if it can spread even before the first symptoms arrive. I am not a professional. I have no exact data about the disease.
The environment is simple. Covid-19 spreads through social contacts. Urban areas with dense populations are ideal places to spread. It is hard to avoid social contacts when you live in a place like them. You cannot avoid all people in dense areas. It also spreads in events and places in which many people gather together closely. These events and places include sports events, weddings, public transportation, etc. These events and places have to be shut down when you want to avoid spreading the virus. All you need is a one-person with the virus and it spreads like a wildfire in a dry season.
The faster you can address all these factors and manipulate them, the less the virus spreads. If I am right about the latter, the first wave of the disease decelerates its spread faster in the countries which have focused on the factors than public offices have predicted. Time will tell us whether that is the case. When the contagions are dangerous like the pandemic, it is better to overreact than undermine its effect. If you want to stop spreading your actions have to be fast and decisive. Therefore, the actions that the public feels are not necessary, are smart things to do when it comes to social contagions with highly negative effects. And because this pandemic is a power-law event, you cannot predict it or its impact on societies.
The next text is about Covid-19 and evolution.
Until then,
-TT
PS. Do you consider yourself as a helpful person? If you found anything useful in this text, teach it to your friends.
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