How social contagions reach critical mass, part 3, right environment

Sorry about being a day late. I was in a short trip on monday and yesterday.

Before reading this, you should read the first and the second part of how social contagions reach critical mass.

I have written about the messengers and messages and what I still have left is the environment, in which, the messengers can deliver the messages. It is quite easy to compose a sticky message and find a messenger to deliver the message compared to manipulating the environment that spreads the message. To be honest, for me the manipulating of the environment part is almost impossible and possibly to the other people too. When the environment is right, reaching the criticcritical mass happens very fast. For example, one suicide triggered the Arab Spring. The reason that happened was the underlying conditions in people´s minds.

Epidemics are sensitive to the conditions and circumstances of the times and places in which they occur. Engaging some kind of behavior is coming more from the certain environment than from other people. You constantly underestimate the role of the environment and other people in how you behave. The reason for this is that you overestimate your ability to make decisions through your rational part of the brain. This means that your inner states are the results of your environment more than you think. When the underlying context around you is right, the small push is enough. Most often, you can control your environment well, but when the timing and the environment is right, even the small changes are enough. For example, having first a zero tolerance for crime and then allowing exceptions like braking some windows or letting people travel in metro without paying the ticket will encourage people to do bigger crimes.

There is another way to launch an epidemic and it is through small and solid groups of people. As a partner of these groups we are subjected to social proof. According to anhtropologist Robin Dunbar the maximum amount of people in a solid and homogenous group is 150 people. Dunbar has researched humans and other primates. Dunbar came in the conclusion that the size of the frontal lobe is the conclusive feature. And this allows the magic number of 150 to be the capacity of following other people. In the bigger groups, people are grouping into smaller groups that are having different opinions about things. Spreading messages is more efficient, when the group size do not reach over 150 people. Building communities should happen this way. When the size gets too big, you should split the group in two and let it grow until 150 members is reached.

Creating a right environment

Creting the right environment is hard. In theory, it can be done by designing an environment in which many psychological tendencies move people to the same direction. There are some environments like this. For example, cults. I am not saying you should build a cult, but you can learn from them. You should definitely be aware of their possible effect on you.

In a cult, there is a restricted availability of contrary stimuli compared to its message. To create a contageous environment, you have to maximize the availability of your message and minimize the availability of contrasting messages. You can use the help of the significant few to do this. Connectors, experts and salesmen can help you to do this. In a cult, there is usually a charismatic authority figure. Most often they are men. This authority is usually a great salesman. Salesmen can convince connectors and experts to speak on their behalf. Social proof is established by these people. Cults have usually relatively small amount of followers. They are tightly-knit groups. It is hard to have unity, when there are many people. You should spread your message through groups that have a maximum amount of 150 people. Links between these groups could be connectors.

Critical mass of social contagions in short.

Lets finish this talk by adding a summary of critical mass in social contagions in the end. To achieve a critical mass for an epidemic, you need to have messengers who can spread the information really effectively, you need to also have a sticky messages for the messengers to spread and last but not least the environment needs to be completely right with the right timing and the result will be an epidemic that spreads quickly. That is all I have to say this time.

- TT

Evolution

Definitions

Evolution in biology can be defined as ”A change in the gene pool of a population from generation to generation by mutation, natural selection, and genetic drift.” You can also have a general definition for evolution, such as ”A process of gradual development in a particular situation or thing over a period of time.”

Evolution is a gradual, random, and slow process most of the time

All the living things started from a birth of a self-copying system with some kind of basic, heritable mutation. Mutations are random errors in copying. Your genes replicate themselves slowly and gradually through the generations. Gradualness is the key feature of evolution. It moves step-by-step from one stage to next. These moves compound in a very long time This process creates new structures and behaviors. And it has no reason or goal in mind. Humans have evolved from simple cells to conscious animals in billions of years. This process adapts to changes by changing itself.

All mutations have an element of luck. Genes maximize their own survival. Genetic effects have their own time and place. These effects may have to be changed by working together with other genes. Together they create chemical environments in our cells. Genes have usually many effects. Some of them are beneficial and most of them bad. Beneficial effects are likely happening later than good ones. Species change through these effects all the time, but slowly. You have to consider this slow speed of change, when you think about how human beings behave. For example, our brains and bodies have changed very little in the last 10,000 years. The environment around us has changed a lot more.

Evolution is a self-organizing system

Evolution happens by adding new strucures, feedback loops, or rules. This ability is the strongest form of a system resilience. Self-organization has rules. They tell the system itself where, how and what can be changed by adding or subtracting something from the system and the under what conditions these changes can happen. Biological evolution has simple set of rules. It has created a complex world with wide variety of species. DNA´s genetic code has four different letters, combined into words with three letters. This pattern and the rules for copying and rearranging it has not been changed in billions of years. These rules have created a variety of failed and successful creatures.

DNA is an evolutionary raw material. It is a stock of variable information and a means for experimentation. It is used for selecting and testing new patterns. Spontaneous mutation creates variety for selecting raw aterial. Changes in the environment are testing mechanisms that determine which individuals survive or reproduce. For technological evolution, the raw material is the understanding of the science. The source of variation is creativity and the selection mechanism are the organizations that fund research or human needs.

Survival of the fittest is not the best definition for evolution

There are some misunderstandings about the evolution. The most common one is that the fittest individuals always have the best chances to survive and thrive through time. You should talk more about the most adaptable and co-operative individuals. Fastest, strongest and biggest do not always cope with changes in the environment. Top-Down hierarchies or bigger structures have problems in coping with change. The faster the changes, the bigger the problems for these structures. Biological evolution is full of random bottom-up processes.

You talk about all the self-replicating genes that are always fighting for the available resources. Genes that are more efficient of getting themselves copied tend to replace the less efficient genes. In the long run, your DNAs become full of well-surviving genes. These genes are best for surviving in the average environment of their species. When the average environment changes, the surviving genes change too. In DNA´s point of view, the average environment is the body, in which DNA visits for a body´s lifetime. The other genes are maybe the most important aspect of the environment. They are not the only things concerning on the environment that matter. For example geographical separation can create different species, because conditions change by the changing geographical location. When the conditions in the environment change fast, we can talk about disruption. 

Adaptability is very important for the non-living things like companies. Their environments are in states of constant change. These changes are many times completely random. Many great inventions like penicillin have been discovered accidentally. Sometimes best solutions for the problem do not win. VHS videos beat Beta videos even though the latter one was the better technology. These examples are all around you. Many researchers have no way of knowing if they ever find anything useful. Companies that suffer from these unexpected discoveries can be the fittest before them and after these discoveries some of these companies even go bankrupt. These things happen because companies couldn´t adapt to changing environments because they are still applying the rules that worked before to the new situation.

This text is just the tip of the ice-berg about evolution. Evolution is all around us and it effects on every living thing on earth. I hope I have covered some basics in an understandable way. Please tell me, if I have failed.

Sources:

Thinking in Systems, Donella H: Meadows
River Out of Eden, Richard Dawkins
From Bacteria to Bach and Back, Daniel Dennett
The Evolution of Everything, Matt Ridley

-TT

Compound effect

Definitions

Compounding effects mean little things that repeatedly multiply themselves. They will give big results after lots of repetitions. After a small amount of repetitions, the compounding effect do not have much influence. In the long run, it means everything. When you talk about compounding we talk about exponential growth or decline.

Examples

Universe´s expansion is accelerating all the time due to the compound effect. Repeating an action again and again will create a reverse compound effect by saving energy out brain needs for executing it. If you have a debt, its amount is compounding as fast as its interest on interest. Inflation has a reverse compound effect on the value of cash. After twenty years of 3% inflation, cash has lost about 45 per cent of its value.

Repetition, repetition, repetition

You have a preference to look for immediate and most obvious reactions in whatever you are doing or seeing. This is a problem in achieving something great. You cannot achieve any big wins quickly. You need to make hundreds or thousands of repetitions to achieve greatness. These repetitions creates the compound effect. You quit too early and you miss the compounding effect. This is a sure way to fail. There are no short-cuts even though some companies or people are willing to offer them. In a highly competitive field of expertise, you need to practice thousands of hours. These means that the amount of repetitions is huge.

You have to be patient and need to trust the process. Consistency is the key. For example, in order to lose 10 kilograms, you can make big changes to your diet for a short period of time like couple months and hope you have enough willpower to survive it or you can make a small change of eating hundred calories less every day for two to three years. The second way will probably be more sustainable and its results will be better. The results will take time, but fast fixes normally lead to fast setbacks. Bigger payoffs are achieved by smaller changes, more time and more repetitions. The best way to get the magic of the compound effect is repeating things long enough. Depending on things, the best results are achieved through years or even decades of compound effect.

Compound effect is always working

Compound effects are everywhere. You go through them every day. Most often, their effects are so small that you are not noticing. You need to focus on them and choose which kind of effect on you they have. You should always aim for more positive than negative effects. For example, your diet is responsible for many compound effects. Their effects are not only on our weights. Good diet will let you make better decisions, feeling more refreshed, more focused, etc. Bad diets will lead you to bad decisions, tiredness, or maybe become even depressed.

Your habits are the most important thing about compounding effect. Your good and bad habits and the sum of their effects make all the difference in your life. The older habits you have, the more difficult it is to change them. Repetitions make them stronger and easier all the time. You also need less effort to maintain them after every repetition. A daily routine built on good habits makes a difference in your success. You have good and bad habits and the the sum of their effects is the sum of most of what you are accomplishing.

Your environment and the people you are with are important in getting the right compound effects. You are constantly bombarded with desirable and undesirable impulses through your environment and your friends. You need to think the inputs our brains get every day. You get most of the impulses without noticing. The sum of these impulses compound over time. Therefore, you need to control our environment and avoid all the unnecessary negative impulses like advertising, other people complaining, negative feedback without critical thinking, etc. You also should get as much positive impulses as possible, like constructive criticism, hanging around with more positive people, etc. You are the sum of the people you most often are with. You do not notice these things, because these things happen so slowly. And people also think they are not influenced by these things, because you think you are always rational. You should increase your awareness and start thinking about your environment, your friends, and their effects on us. Then you can increase the positive effects of compounding.

Most of the readers have probably noticed that I haven´t mentioned much about money and compounding. It is true that compounding money is one of the most important things about this mental model. The reason I have left it out of this text, is that it needs more space than I can offer in this text. 

Sources:

Compound-Effect, Darren Hardy
Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell
Poor Charlie´s Almanack, Peter Kaufman, Charles T. Munger
Peak, Anders Ericsson

-TT