How social contagions reach critical mass, part 1 The law of the significant few

Critical mass in social contagions is the point where they start spreading exponentially. The speed is so fast that spreading takes care of itself. These contagions can happen either suddenly or slowly. An example of a sudden case was a change in using aeroplanes after 9/11. Instead of using a plane, many people used their own cars. Their probability of having lethal accidents became much higher. And after 9/11, there was much more deaths in transportation compared to the time before 9/11. An example of slow contagion can be any product that has been sold for many years before a big success. And then suddenly its popularity accelerates exponentially. Social contagions have three main components: people who spread it, stickiness of the message and the environment it spread. This text is mainly about the people behind social contagions.

The law of the significant few

Throughout the history, there has been people who have had enormous effects on others. These people are crucial for spreading social contagions and creating social proof. Sometimes they are people who are not known to have so much connections with other people and sometimes they are well known all over the world or in their own field of expertise. All these people have great social skills. They are efficient accelerators of epidemics. Being at the right place at the right time also matters. But it is not enough without great social skills. Getting assistance from these people help you to accelerate and widen the amount of listeners of your message. You can widely divide these people into three different groups: connectors, experts, and salesmen. Most effective of these people are some kind of combinations of these groups.

Connectors

If you don´t know many people, you cannot be a connector. These are the people who know everyone. Connectors are the type of people who are natural in getting to know new people. When you talk to them, you can be surprised how many people they know. I am sure you know at least one person who is like a connector. Ask his help for spreading your message. Connectors create so called weak links between people. They tell you that ”you should contact this person to talk about getting a new job”, or ”you can ask this person about a car he is selling.” Connectors are not important only because they know many other people. It is also highly likely that they know some people who can help you. They know the most important influencers and introduce them to other people. These people probably know more experts and salesmen, the other groups of people that are effective in spreading social contagions.

Experts or mavens

Malcolm Gladwell calls these people Mavens in his book Tipping Point. A maven means a ”one who accumulates knowledge” in Yiddish. Experts are not the people who have a similar effect on others than connectors. Experts are sources of information and connectors are more like the messengers. Experts have natural tendencies to gather new information. They figure out the best options for whatever you are trying to seek and want to deliver them to you. They have a natural desire to help other people solve their problems. They know the tiniest details about the things that rest of the people have no idea. Experts are both like teachers and students. They can also be seen as databanks.

Salesmen

Connectors and experts are not persuaders. They cannot change people´s minds. You need different type of people to get people change their opinions. These people are charismatic, they have lots of energy and you can feel their enthusianism before you even talk to them. Salesmen are capable of bringing rational and uniform arguments when they talk to you. These people are not only good in giving verbal arguments to you. They express their feelings and emotions well by changing their physical appearance. They do all of this by timing their facial and bodily expressions with your natural rhytm of communication. Most successful politicians are examples of salesmen. They have an ability to persuade you without even always having a personal contact.

Have a reasonable doubts about the advantage of having contact with these people

Be aware of the effects these people can have on you. All the effects are not good. This applies especially to experts and salesmen. People who you think are experts can be just fools in disguise. Many people follow their messages and life and think they are real authorities. They lead people to wrong directions. They may have lots of detailed information to share, but have no understanding about which pieces of their information are relevant. It is hard to find real cause-effect relationships from complex information and events. Even real experts are wrong sometimes. If you are not capable of knowing if these experts are real deals, you shouldn´t listen to them. Salesmen are very persuasive and they have power to change people´s opinions into wrong direction. You should always be especially mindful while you listen to them.

Next week I will introduce you to sticky messages.

-TT

Authority misinfluence tendency

Definitions

An authority can be defined as ”The power or right to give orders, make decisions, and enforce obedience.” or as ”A person or organization having political or administrative power and control.”

Titles, appearances and status symbols

Authorities and their appearance can be divided into three different groups: titles, outer appearance, and status items. One person can be an authority through all the combinations of these groups or with just one of them. Would you believe someone with a bachelor of science in some discipline or a PhD of the same subject? It is harder to dispute someone with a big and fancy title even though he can be wrong as well. Clothes, looks, and other aspects of appearance are effective too. Uniforms, expensive clothes, and handsome or beautiful people look more like authorities than ugly people with old and torn clothes have more authorative power. The latter people are actually more likely to be the ones who are not listened to. Some items can be associated for authoritative items. For example, expensive watches, cars, and other luxury items help people to deliver their messages. There is no guarantee that any of the three characteristics mean that a person is a believable authority.

Real authorities and pseudoexperts

It is not easy to distinguish all the pseudoexperts from the real authorities you should listen to. You can simplify things by putting experts to two different categories. Things that move and require knowledge and are uncertain normally do not have experts. And things that do not move tend to have some experts. You can put the next professions into category in which there are no experts according to psychologist James Shanteau: stockbrokers, clinical psychologists, college admission officers, personnel, court judges, counsilors, intelligence analysts, financial forecasters, finance professors, etc. You can put the next professions into category in which there are some experts: livestock judges, astronomers, test pilots, soil judges, chess masters, physicists, mathematicians who do not work with empirical problems, accountants, and insurance analysts.

The best way to separate real authorities and fools with fancy titles is to check their personal track record. You should find out that these real authorities have managed to deliver better results than others for decades. They are not one hit wonders. All this personal success should be measurable with concrete terms. For example, investors who have managed to beat indices cumulatively for a clear margin for decades or venture capitalists who have helped many companies to achieve huge successes. You also have to remember that these people are experts only in their prospective domains. They are not experts in other things.

There are many pseudoexperts that disguise themselves as experts. They have many usual characteristics. They focus more on appearance than substance, they use professional jargon to explain things instead of using the language everybody can understand, they do not only talk jargon, but they complicate things too much or they explain big results with a single factor, they transfer risks to their clients and take big part of the results for themselves without having any skin in the game, and they are cherished or rewarded by the fools like themselves.

Being an authority figure

Most adults are some kind of authority figures to some kids. If you are a teacher, a parent, a police, or a priest you are likely to be an authority figure to some child. And there is a responsibility to act like one. Actions speak lot louder than words. All people have mirror neurons in their brains. They fire when a person acts and when the same person observes the action performed by another. They are constantly working. When you do something, child´s mirror neurons observe your behavior and can learn from it. When you decide to give an order your child to do something or stop doing something, the frequency is not enough to teach him/her so much. You shouldn´t tell them anything without showing an example. If you want to teach your child to use their smartphones less, you should use less yourself. It is the most effective way of doing it. Giving an order to stop doing something is not that effective. Your child wants to be like you, you should behave they you want them to behave. If you want your children to be better persons, you should be a better person too.

Sources:

The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb
Influence The Psychology of Persuasion, Robert Cialdini
Poor Charlie´s Almanack, Peter Kaufman

Next text will be published abou 19th of June,

-TT