Anglo-American long term cycle, part 4 Crisis era

If and when Howe and Strauss were right, things could escalate to the full-blown Crisis. Current cycle is in a Crisis era. You can see many commonalities between the era we live now and the era in the end of 1930s. It is possible that all the things happening now are just random noise and I, Howe and Strauss are wrong. Investor Ray Dalio also sees things as we do. World is about to go into the climax of a Crisis era.

The anatomy of a Crisis era

Crisis era lasts normally something between 15 and 25 years. Once has it been very short. This happened during the Civil War in the US. Era starts with a catalyst or catalysts. It can be a burst of an economic bubble, like in the 1929, a Civil War, a declaratio of independence, or some surprise in general election. These catalysts change the mental state of the majority in a country. It can happen suddenly or slowly. Normally change starts from one to five year after the catalyst. Society starts determining itself differently along the period of time. People are more interested in developing institutions than themselves. They start repelling individuals who are more interested about themselves than the community they live in. Some people may start destroying the assets of the rich people. In this era, the differences in the incomes between the rich and poor are the largest. Culture and technology are used for strengthening the behavior for the common good.

Protecting society from the new threats takes over. Problems are exaggerated. When these problems are trying to be solved, the problems get bigger. These solutions are simple and demanding. Instead of solving the reasons for the problems, people focus on the symptoms. Leaders use institutions to solve problems in the society. Leaders are bad during the Crisis. People still believe them and their solutions. The role of a family grows in society. Social interaction grows too. Cooperation is based on survival, not fairness. Some people and generations need to sacrifice their benefits for the common good. This can lead to a division of labor among the gender and age. Children are overprotected compared to adults and women are overprotected compared to men. The promises made about the well-fare of people before the Crisis won´t be kept. It becomes impossible.

During the climax of the Crisis, the role of the people is the strongest. The rage in the individuals has transformed into rage of the community. Protectionism and xenophobia are strongest. The probability of wars is highest. If they are fought, there could be a bitter end with extensive destruction. The probabilities for Civil Wars and revolutions are highest during the climax. Politicians have bigger moral rationales for destroying the enemy than normally. They have no room for compromises in their minds. Common people want an utter destruction of the enemy. Climax of the Crisis is society´s counterpart for nature´s earthquakes and floods. The destruction creates the change in society. It can be good or bad. You cannot know it beforehand. Climax normally happens from one to five years before the end of a Crisis era.

Commonalities between today and 1930s

The catalyst of the former Crisis era concluded in 1929, when the stock market crashed. You can also see that financial crash 2007-2009 concluded this Crisis. Finally central banks had to print money because they had no other way of solving the financial crisis. In the 1930s, there was a Great Depression. This financial crisis was a Great Recession. People didn´t suffer financially as badly as in the 1930s. The recover was faster this time. This recovery haven´t really solved the financial problems of the great majority of people. The former recovery didn´t either. When this happens, the great majority feels that capitalism and democracy do not function well enough for them. Populism increased like it did in the former crisis. Catastrophe is bound to happen, when these problems are not solved. During the 1930s, the dominant world power Great Britain confronted the rising power Germany. Today, there is about to be a big conflict between the dominant world power US and China. A hybrid was is on. It is hard to forecast whether it becomes a full blown conflict that is fought until destruction.

Archetypes during a Crisis era

In a Crisis era, Prophets can be seen more as spiritual elder leaders than active seniors. They highlight their physical weaknesses. They are more interested in religious beliefs and are willing to praise the lord for younger generations. Women are more interested in religion than men. Political leaders are often Prophets during the Crisis. These gray champions demand moral values from the younger people. They also need to understand that their economic wellbeing is diminished during Crisis. Their financial benefits are reduced for the sake of younger generations. Boomers have lived without great financial problems until now. They have to get used to have less money for consumption. Some of them will work after retirement, especially during a climax of the Crisis.

Nomads are in midlife during a Crisis. This archetype has the biggest financial suffering. They have the biggest role in solving problems in society. They have to think about conflicts between there own benefits and the socially acceptable solutions. Their number one goal is survival of the society. They have also the greatest responsibility in getting people to work on common good, instead of their own benefits. Nomads are flexible employees. They are willing to change jobs and their behavior if they are necessary for their survival. A typical success story is an entrepreneur who is known for his technological ingenuity, being flexible, and his cunning plans. Typical failure is a person who takes big risks and do not accept their losses on time.

Heroes represent cooperation during a Crisis. They guide technological development for more communal purposes. Facebook is one good example. Mark Zuckerberg belongs to Hero generation. Heroes work in bigger groups of people than other generations during Crisis. Older generations see them as a generation who works towards its own good, but it is not true. During a climax this is a big thing. Without this cooperation, there would have been a catastrophic solution for each Crisis era. Heroes solve problems through cooperation much better than older generations´ expectations. The behavior and clothing of young adults will become more harmonized. Individuality suffers. They are ready for sacrifices because of the common good. They will use violence if necessary and they are willing to fight for the bitter end. As an employees, Heroes strengthen the role of labor unions during a Crisis. They will also take care of decreasing the differences in income between the poor and the rich.

Artists have only small roles during a Crisis. They are either in the late elderhood or childhood. They are dependent on others. Artists are overprotected as children. They also suffer from losses of parents more than any other archetype. They help adults by doing small chores like cleaning or vacuuming. In the late elderhood, Artists can only follow how the Crisis advances from the side and hope for wellbeing for their last years of life.

I could also speculate about the future, but I will not do that, because I cannot forecast anything.

This is all for the long term Anglo-American cycle.

-TT

Angloamerican long-term cycle, part 3, generational archetypes

As it is with Turnings, there are four generational archetypes. Each archetype has their own common characteristics. These characteristics are found from the majority of each generation. Each generation lasts about a one phase of life. All these archetypes arrive always in the same order. Each archetype has its own way of reacting to events in different phases of life. These phases of life start from childhood, moves through young adulthood to midlife, and ends in elderhood. One can also add late elderhood for the fifth phase, but it is irrelevant in this context. There are not enough people in late elderhood to have a significant effect on events in the world. Each archetype in each phase of life has a different effect on other archetypes. These effects are guided by the long-term cycle with four Turnings.

Childhood is a time for growing, learning, and approving the need for protection from older generations. The social role of children hasn´t really changed in the last decades, even though technology and medicine have improved significantly. When the childhood ends, young adulthood begins. In this phase of life, it is time to transform ideas and dreams into projects and plans. It is also time for building a career and starting a family. Midlife is a time for conserving lifestyle, and transferring dreams and ideas into reality. Guiding younger generations is one of the most important tasks at this phase of life. Most people also start realizing their aging and start seeing signs of their transformation towards elderhood. Most people die in this fourth phase of life. This is the time when you can stop caring about your duty towards the society and finish your career.

There is a contradiction to consider, when you think about how the generations are formed. History makes the generations and generations make history. It is not easy to define the generations when new children are born so much every second. So the question is how do you define the generations? First, you need to define the length of each generation. A generation is a group of people who have been born in the same time in history. This time has the approximate length of one phase of life which is around twenty years. One generation has seen the same events at the same time. Second, majority of the generation have similar beliefs about families, gender roles, institutions, politics, religion and future. And majority of them react the same way for the same events. Any individual can still have his own ways of believing and reacting. Third, they have a sense of belonging to a certain generation. For example, Millennials feel they belong to their own group of people. Each generation has also its own biography.

Different archetypes

Prophets are born and raised during a High. They come of age as a narcissistic young adults during an Awakening. When they are in midlife, they cultivate their moral principles during an Unraveling and they become wise gray champions during a Crisis. During this fourth Turning, leaders are usually Prophets. They guide younger generation to a great victory or catastrophe. Other archetypes see them as narcissistic, arrogant, and ruthless. They are principally endowed towards vision, values, and religion. Prophets have the greatest Effect on Heroes, and vice versa. The reason for this is that when Prophets are in midlife, Heroes are in childhood, and vice versa. Some of the Prophets that had big effects on people in history were, Benjamin Franklin, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin Roosevelt. The best known Prophet today is probably Donald Trump.

Nomads are born and have a liberal upbringing during an Awakening. During an Unraveling, they become marginalized from the society when they are in young adulthood. Their actions are pragmatic during a Crisis in midlife and they accept their destiny as ignored elders during a High. During this Turning, their efforts and actions during a Crisis are forgotten. Some of them are even humiliated with a lack of respect from younger generations, even though they were the most important generation for the victory during the last Turning. Other archetypes see them as practical, cultureless, and amoral. They are principally endowed towards freedom, survival, and honor. Nomads have the biggest effect on Artists, and vice versa. Some of the Nomads that had big effects on people in history were George Washington, Ulysses S. Grant, and Dwight Eisenhower. The best known Nomad today is probably Barach Obama.

Heroes are born and protected during an Unraveling. They have a role as cooperative young adults for solving a Crisis. They are then guided by some Prophets and middle-aged Nomads for getting the best possible result from the Crisis. During a High, they are arrogant middle-aged people and during an Awakening, they are strong and effective elders. Other archetypes see them as selfless, capable and mechanistic. They are principally endowed towards community, technology, and prosperity. Heroes have the biggest effect on Prophets, and vice versa. Some of the Heroes that had big effects on people in history were Thomas Jefferson, John F. Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan. Most known Hero today is probably Mark Zuckerberg.

Artists are born as overprotected children during a Crisis and they are senstive yound adults during a High. They function as undecided middle-aged leaders during an Awakening and are emphatic elders during an Unraveling. Others archetypes see them as open-minded, emotional and undecided. They are principally endowed towards competence, due process, and pluralism. Artists have the biggest effect on Nomads, and vice versa. Some of the Artists that had big effects on people in history were Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Colin Powell. The best known Artist today is probably Warren Buffett.

Next week, I will publish a text about an ongoing Crisis. Until then,

-TT

Anglo-American long term cycle, Saeculum, Part 1, Basics

What we learn from history that we do not learn from history

-Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel

I will focus on the Anglo-American long-term cycles and generations in this text. For now, Anglo-American world is the most dominant one in this globe. This thing may change in this century. To me, this change is actually more probable than continuous Anglo-American dominance. This first part is about the basics of a saeculum cycle, its four different seasons and different archetypes of generations. ”History does not repeat but it rhymes”, said Mark Twain. This text is mostly based on the book called ”The Fourth Turning”, written by William Strauss and Neil Howe. This book is an excellent and worthwhile reading. It was written in the middle of 1990s and is still relevant. Some of its forecasts have actualized and some of them have not.

As you can divide a year for four different seasons, you can do the same for a long-term saeculum cycle. A long term cycle lasts 80-100 years and in an Anglo-American societies they have lasted from the 1400s. These long-term cycles can be divided into four generational cycles called turnings. They represent different seasons in one long-term cycle. These turnings can last anything from 15-30 years, like different phases of life. Most often they last about 18-22 years. These turnings are a first turning called a High, second turning called an Awakening, third turning called an Unraveling and fourth turning called a Crisis. There are four phases of human life, childhood, young adulthood, midlife and elderhood. One generational archetype dominates one phase of life in one turning. These archetypes are:

• A Prophet generation, born in a High
• A Nomad generation, born in an Awakening
• A Hero generation, born in an Unraveling
• An Artist generation, born in a Crisis

You have to understand these archetypes and their role in the long term cycle. You have to understand that majority of the people in one generation have special characteristics these archetypes have, not all of them. These characteristics are formed by the events of history and vice versa. You have to also understand that without different archetypes, their wouldn´t be different turnings. A new archetypal generation is born, when most people of the same generation are either dead or living their last years. These archetypes are the main reasons why long term cycle reoccurs again and again.

About the length and reason of the cycle

Most people in Anglo-American countries are not aware of these long-term cycles and their roles in them. A Crisis in the end of the cycle happens, because most people who remember the last Crisis are long gone. A society and the nature have to complete their social and biological changes. Periodic destruction in the end of the cycle is needed to renew the society and the nature. Human life time is the natural rhytm for these cycles. How could it be anything else? The changes in political regimes, natural disasters, and technology vary in length, but natural human life cycle hasn´t much changed in the previous centuries. People died before in diseases and wars before their natural life spans ended.

The most important reason for why people are doomed to see these long-term cycles are that they think linearly. People think mostly about today and they forget to think about longer-term cycles. They have no idea about seasonal changes in societies. Within a long-term cycle, each season has its own characteristics. These characteristics vary within a cycle more than seasons in different long-term cycles. An Unraveling in one cycle looks more like the Unraveling in the previous cycle than an Awakening and Unraveling in the same cycle. The reason for variation is that different archetypes have different roles in different seasons. Different generations are dominating different seasons. Archetypes in young adulthood and in midlife have bigger roles in seasons. These dominant archetypes also move their actions and behaviors for reflecting their own lifetime experiences. Thus, their efforts are directed into different directions than the efforts of the previous dominant archetypes. These changes in efforts move people from one season to another. The most dominant archetypes have the biggest effects on the second younger generation. For example, Nomads that are in midlife right now have the most effects on Artists in the childhood.

This text was part 1 of the Anglo-American cycles and generations.

There is more to come in the next few weeks. You will be less well prepared for the future, if you don´t understand a long-term cycle.

-TT